Ready For Fall
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 12:13 AM
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Patchy fog expected after midnight, especially east of Interstate sixty-five. Temperatures are forecast to remain well above seasonal norms. Heat index values in the one hundreds are expected every day through Thursday, mainly for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. We may start to see a gradual cool-down next weekend, along with our next rain chances, but there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding specific timing. A couple tiny showers plague the Plateau tonight... Then the radar goes completely clear. Midnight brings localized dense fog... East of Interstate sixty-five... Rain chances are going to disappear tomorrow. Another week of summer heat trapped inside our chest. Highs in the low nineties, humidity clinging like sweat. A strong amplified upper ridge builds over the southeast... It's holding us down. Tuesday and Wednesday, the problem child arrives! Pushing afternoon highs into the middle nineties! Close to Heat Advisory criteria! Ten degrees above average! There is no escape from this ridge! I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU! BUT I CAN'T TAKE ANOTHER DAY! THE RAIN IS GONE AND THE RIDGE WON'T DIE! READY FOR FALL! IS THIS OUR FIRST BREAK IN THE HEAT?! LARGE UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN HALF! FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OR UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS! SAVE THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE END! Great deal of uncertainty... Specific timing... I'm ready for fall... Ready for fall.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
- Patchy fog expected after midnight, especially east of I-65.
- Temperatures are forecast to remain well above seasonal norms.
Heat index values in the 100s are expected every day through Thursday, mainly for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
- We may start to see a gradual cool-down next weekend, along with our next rain chances, but there is a great deal of uncertainly regarding specific timing.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
I don't know about you, but I'm ready for fall.
Unfortunately, we've still got at least another week of this summer heat.
Even worse, rain chances are going to vanish tomorrow.
I might have some good news, but I'll save it for the end.
A couple tiny showers continue to plague the Plateau at forecast time.
Nothing heavy, but it might be a couple more hours before the radar is completely clear.
In any event, I still think patchy fog will start to develop around midnight.
I don't foresee it being too widespread, but areas east of I-65 might deal with some localized dense fog by daybreak.
Use caution as you head out in these areas Sunday morning.
As I said, rain chances are going to disappear tomorrow.
That's good if you have outdoors plans.
What's not good if you have outdoor plans is going to be the persistent heat and humidity.
Temperatures and heat index values should be similar to what we saw on Saturday.
This will also be the case on Monday with highs in the low 90s and heat index values west of the Cumberland Plateau in the low 100s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
The middle of the week may be the problem child of this forecast.
Most, if not all, medium range guidance suggests a strong, amplified upper ridge developing over the southeast U.S. This will be the culprit in pushing afternoon highs back into the middle (and some upper) 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Dew points should be such that we'll be very close to Heat Advisory criteria both days.
By Thursday, the ridge will start to weaken and temperatures could be a touch cooler, but we'll run near 10 degrees above average through the middle of the week.
Friday should be the start of *some* relief.
Temperatures in our extended guidance are expected to back off to where they currently are and rain chances should return to the forecast.
Now, HOW they return is the question.
Latest GFS suggests a front sweeping through the region on Friday.
Euro has more upper level troughiness without a frontal passage.
Obviously there's plenty of details to work out here, but what each is showing is large upper troughing over the eastern half of the U.S. in the 7-10 day range.
Could this be our first break in the heat in quite some time?