Send The Front South
Monday, September 7, 2026 · 6:14 AM
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Key Messages. Updated at six fourteen A.M. Central Daylight Time Monday September seventh, twenty twenty-six. Low rain chances for areas east of Interstate sixty-five Monday afternoon. Above normal temperatures with highs generally in the nineties expected through the week. Dry Tuesday and Wednesday, but rain chances increase Thursday. Clear skies over Middle Tennessee... Northerly winds whisper quiet across the Plateau... Low chances for patchy fog before dawn... High pressure resting in the west... A weak disturbance moving through the eastern troff... Labor Day cools the surface just a fraction, A brief reprieve before the ridge shifts back. High pressure takes control of the Southeast, Temperatures climbing up the northern track. Upper eighties on the mountain, low nineties on the plain, Holding back the storm, suppressing all the rain. Wednesday stays dry, locked under the heat, Lapse rates decaying while the atmosphere sleeps. We wait for Thursday, we wait for the break, Counting the hours for the boundary to shake. Moisture streams ahead of the northern line, Troffing in the distance pushing through the pine. Forty to sixty percent as the pressure yields, Send the front south over burning fields. POOR LAPSE RATES! SHEAR LESS THAN THIRTY KNOTS! THE HIGH IS SUPPRESSED! SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE! SEND THE FRONT SOUTH! Low to medium chances linger into the weekend... Temperatures remain above normal... Still above normal...
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 614 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
- Low rain chances for areas east of I-65 Monday afternoon.
- Above normal temperatures with highs generally in the 90s expected through the week.
- Dry Tuesday & Wednesday, but rain chances increase Thursday.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Overall, a quiet night is ahead with mostly clear skies and light northerly winds.
This does give a low chance for patchy fog tonight, particularly across the Plateau.
For Monday, Middle TN remains between high pressure to the west and troughing over the east.
A weak embedded disturbance gives a low chance for rain & storms for areas east of I-65 during the afternoon.
But for most, it'll be a dry Labor Day with temperatures a little cooler than recent days.
But high temperatures in the low-90s will still run above normal.
By Tuesday, the aforementioned high shifts back over the southeastern US and temperatures will warm in response.
Look for highs on Tuesday to be in the upper-80s for the Plateau and into the low and mid-90s elsewhere.
With the high overhead, it'll be a dry day.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
The high remains in place on Wednesday, leading to another dry day and highs in the 90s for most of the area.
We'll have to wait until Thursday for a pattern change as troughing to the north suppresses the high and sends a front south.
Moisture will be streaming into the area ahead of this front, and rain chances continue to trend up with each forecast package for Thursday and now range from about 40 to 60 percent.
Forecast soundings don't show much to be concerned with right now with very poor lapse rates and shear less than 30 knots.
Low to medium rain chances will linger Friday and into the weekend.
As far as temperatures go, they'll cool some late week, but will still be above normal.