Damaging Wind Threat
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 10:41 PM
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Updated at ten thirty-two P.M. Central Daylight Time Friday September fourth twenty twenty-six. Major to extreme heat risk continues through this weekend with heat index values of one hundred five to one hundred ten degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon with a low risk for severe weather due to strong to damaging winds. Heat risk lessens early next week, but temperatures remain above-normal through the forecast period. Baking under high pressure shifting out west Mid-nineties heat and my boots pass the test Atmosphere is loaded, sounding dry down low Just waiting for the afternoon sun to start the show Weak wind shear, but don't get it wrong Downdraft convective energy is strong One thousand Joules ready to explode As a weak cold front drags across the road So bring on the fire, bring on the heat Triple digit index baking the street Isolated storms knocking down the trees We got a damaging wind threat! Eastern half sitting in a marginal risk Forcing near the front makes the air real brisk Diminishing quick once the sunset falls Drier air filtering through these walls Weak wind shear, but don't get it wrong Downdraft convective energy is strong One thousand Joules ready to explode As a weak cold front drags across the road So bring on the fire, bring on the heat Triple digit index baking the street Isolated storms knocking down the trees We got a damaging wind threat! Yeah, a damaging wind threat! One thousand Joules coming down tonight! Let it blow!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1032 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
- Major to extreme heat risk continues through this weekend with heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon with a low risk for severe weather due to strong to damaging winds.
- Heat risk lessens early next week, but temperatures remain above-normal through the forecast period.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
Today's activity has diminished, and a quiet but warm night is ahead.
The area will still be under the influence of strong high pressure although it will be shifting towards the west this weekend.
Still, hot temperatures with highs well into the 90s will continue Saturday.
Temperatures dip a couple more degrees on Sunday with the high over the Plains, but will still be in the mid-90s for southwest Middle TN with triple digit heat indices.
These temperatures are still well above normal for September, and with several days of these temperatures, heat risk will still be major across western Middle TN. As such, have extended the Heat Advisory for this area into Sunday.
As far as rain goes, as the high shifts west, this will open the door for a weak disturbance and cold front to move through the area Saturday, allowing for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening.
Wind shear will be weak with this system which lessens the threat for any organized severe weather risk.
But forecast soundings look like inverted-Vs with plenty of DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg.
This will support a strong to damaging wind threat.
A marginal risk is still in place for Saturday across the eastern half of the area where forcing is a bit better in proximity to the front.
But any thunderstorm Saturday will be capable of producing gusty winds.
Activity should diminish quickly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Drier air filters in for Sunday.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
On Monday, Middle TN is between the high still to the west and troughing to the east.
This allows for a low chance of diurnally- driven storms, primarily across the Plateau.
But by Tuesday, the high works its way back over the southeastern US which keeps temperatures in the 90s through the end of next week.
These temperatures don't look like they'll be as hot as this current heat wave with heat index values staying below that 105 degree heat advisory criteria.
But these above normal readings for September will still be uncomfortable.
With the high overhead, it does bring dry conditions for at least Tuesday & Wednesday.
We'll have to look ahead to next Thursday for the possibility of a pattern shift and the return of some low rain chances.