Marginal At Best

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Major to extreme heat risk through Saturday with heat index values up to 110 degrees.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of Middle TN through 8 PM Saturday.

- Heat risk lessens early next week, but temperatures remain above-normal through the forecast period.

- Low chance for afternoon rain and thunderstorms through next week.

Strongest storms will pose a threat for strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Another hot and sticky day is upon us. Temperatures are already in the upper 80s to low 90s this morning with dew point temperatures in the mid 70s.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday at 8PM for heat index values up to 110 degrees.

Aside from the heat, we'll have a low chance for isolated storms this afternoon as high pressure starts to pull back from the area.

Given high air temperatures, sounding profiles will feature an inverted-V, favoring strong gusty winds should anything develop with DCAPE values in the 1000s.

Warm and muggy again overnight tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

On Saturday, we'll see some progression with the upper air pattern as ridging pulls west and flow orients out of the northwest.

This will allow for shortwave disturbances to be pulled down from the midwest, riding the periphery of the ridge.

As such, this does appear to be the case Saturday as a weak cold front develops out ahead of this wave.

This will provide a focus for a better chance of showers and storms to develop during the afternoon as instability ramps up with peak heating.

Deep layer shear will be marginal at best, but since instability values will be so high, it won't take much push to get a storm going.

Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain.

The better forcing will be over our northeast counties, but keep an eye out no matter where you are in the mid-state as storms could sprout up quickly.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Uncertainty remains for the end time for Saturday's activity.

Some CAMs are hinting at additional activity later into the evening where others have things winding down around 7pm.

Maintained low PoP during the 6PM-12AM timeframe to account for this uncertainty.

On Sunday, though still hot, the cold front will allow for drier air to filter in to the area, bringing heat index values below triple digits.

For the upcoming work week, it's gonna be...you guessed it. Hot.

We will remain fixed between ridging to the west and troughing to the northeast through Monday which will allow for low chances for diurnally-driven storms.

By Tuesday, high pressure will be solidly back over the southeast, shutting off rain chances for a few days.

Though it's not currently looking heat advisory hot (feel-like of 105), it's still going to be uncomfortable out as heat index values make a run for 100 degrees again.

Keep this in mind if you have any outdoor interests next week.

Another pattern shift near the end of the week will re-introduce low rain chances into the forecast.