Above The Ninetieth
Thursday, September 3, 2026 · 12:22 AM
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Major to extreme heat risk through this week with heat index values in the triple digits. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties through Friday. Low chance for afternoon rain and thunderstorms through next week. Strong high pressure centered over the state High temperatures burning in the upper nineties Precipitable water on the evening sounding coming in at one point nine zero inches That moisture suffocates the atmospheric column Above the ninetieth percentile Ten to fifteen percent chance for pop-up showers this afternoon Convection allowing models picking up on the pulse Plenty of instability to shatter the cap A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties through Friday Can we overcome the pressure ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH! ABOVE THE NINETIETH!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
- Major to extreme heat risk through this week with heat index values in the triple digits.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties through Friday.
- Low chance for afternoon rain and thunderstorms through next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Strong high pressure remains centered over the area and will continue to be the cause of very hot temperatures through the end of the week.
High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be similar to Wednesday with readings in the upper-90s and heat indices in the triple digits.
Only noteworthy change in the forecast is the low chance (10-15%) for pop-up showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
The PWAT on the evening sounding came in at an impressive 1.90 inches, above the 90th percentile.
That moisture and plenty of instability may be enough to help overcome the strong high pressure, and CAMs are picking up on this as well.
No concerns with these potential pop-ups.
Just consider yourself lucky if you get a little relief from the heat.
Similar conditions expected on Friday with highs still stuck in the upper-90s with another low chance for pop-up storms.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties through Friday.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
By this weekend, the high pressure shifts off to the west, and temperatures will dip ever so slightly.
But temperatures remaining in the 90s this weekend and into at least the first half of next week will still be well above normal for early September.
As far as rain goes, northwest flow will open the door for low rain chances, likely diurnally-driven, to continue into this weekend and early next week.
Unfortunately, these hotter temperatures look to continue well into next week as ensemble guidance is favoring the high pressure to build back towards our area, keeping these above normal temperatures continuing in the extended forecast.