Marginal Forcing
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 10:39 PM
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Areas of patchy dense fog likely Thursday morning, especially over western Middle Tennessee. Low to medium thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon. Severe weather is not expected. Seasonable temperatures will warm into the mid and upper nineties next week with mostly dry conditions. Short wave troff! Dense fog advisory! Daybreak boundary! Cape above one thousand! Twenty knots bulk shear! Scattered thunderstorms! Poor lapse rates! East of Interstate sixty-five! Marginal forcing! Marginal forcing! Severe threat low! Marginal forcing! Diminish after sunset! Four Corners ridge amplifies! Upper nineties lingering! Dry weather! Marginal forcing!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1038 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
- Areas of patchy dense fog likely Thursday morning, especially over western Middle TN.
- Low to medium thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected.
- Seasonable temperatures will warm into the mid and upper-90s next week with mostly dry conditions.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
A short wave trough is exiting to our southeast and we will see short wave ridging build in overnight.
This will bring a concern for fog, some of the fog could be dense with the highest chances in southern and western areas.
A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed depending on how widespread the fog development is.
A short wave trough exiting the Great Lakes will push a boundary south.
This will push into the area overnight and will bring some cloud cover and a low shower chance before daybreak to the northwest part of the area.
The boundary will slowly work east through the region as the day goes on. CAPE will increase to above 1000 j/kg by the afternoon with around 20 knots of bulk shear.
The boundary will be enough forcing to kick off some scattered showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances east of I-65. Lapse rates will be poor and forcing with the boundary will only be marginal, this will keep the severe threat very low.
Highs will make it into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish quickly after sunset and dry weather settles in Thursday night.
Patchy fog will be a concern once again with the highest chances for for fog over the Plateau.
Troughing will push to our east on Friday as the Four Corners ridge amplifies.
This will bring quiet and dry weather with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
The strong ridge to our west will slowly build east as we head into the weekend.
This will keep conditions dry with warming temperatures.
Highs will push into the low to mid 90s by Sunday.
By early next week the upper level ridge will be over us keeping the warming trend going.
We will see widespread highs in the low to mid 90s with some upper 90s possible.
The ridge will linger over the areas for much of the week keeping conditions hot.
Rain chances will be very low throughout the week.