Limiting Factor
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 6:49 PM
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Areas of patchy dense fog likely overnight, especially over western Middle Tennessee. Low to medium thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon. Severe weather is not expected. Seasonable temperatures will warm into the mid and upper-nineties next week with mostly dry conditions. Great Lakes troff holding down the line! Shortwave embedded in the northwest flow! A cluster moving through the river bed! One thousand cape and nowhere left to go! Steep low-level lapse rates burning through the heat! Approaching from the northwest down the street! Mesoanalysis says confidence is low! Guidance is struggling with the cluster's show! Will it build, will it die, will it break through the door? An unorganized engine with no power at the core! It chokes on its outflow, collapsing to the floor! No organization, it can't take any more! It chokes on its outflow, collapsing to the floor! Weak shear is the limiting factor! Weak cold front pushing south on Thursday night! Scattered thunderstorms fading out of sight! Diminishing between eight and ten P.M. into the dark! Short-lived energy without a real spark! Upper-eighties to low-nineties on the scale! No severe threat, just a dying tail! It chokes on its outflow, collapsing to the floor! No organization, it can't take any more! It chokes on its outflow, collapsing to the floor! Weak shear is the limiting factor! Diminish by ten P.M.! Short-lived threat! No severe weather! Weak shear is the limiting factor!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 628 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
- Areas of patchy dense fog likely overnight, especially over western Middle TN.
- Low to medium thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected.
- Seasonable temperatures will warm into the mid and upper-90s next week with mostly dry conditions.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Satellite imagery this morning shows a large upper-level ridge over the western CONUS with a trough located near the Great Lakes area.
Northwest flow is set up over Middle TN between these features with an embedded shortwave.
This has developed a line of thunderstorms that are currently moving southeast through West TN. Short-term guidance is struggling on how to evolve this cluster through the late morning/afternoon.
Current mesoanalysis shows CAPE values around 1000 J/kg near the TN River with steep low-level lapse rates.
Shear values are poor though which would indicate that this cluster should become outflow dominant and weaken, not posing a severe threat.
Confidence is low with additional development this afternoon now with this line approaching from the northwest.
Low to medium rain chances still persist in the forecast though, mainly for southwest Middle TN. With any activity that does develop, shear continues to be the limiting factor.
Can't rule out any strong to potentially damaging winds through this evening, but with weak shear, any stronger storms are likely short-lived and not organized.
Thunderstorm activity and the severe weather threat looks to diminish between 8-10pm.
The aforementioned Great Lakes trough then allows for a weak cold front to push south through the area Thursday.
This will bring another round of scattered thunderstorms again primarily during the afternoon and evening.
Still can't rule out a stronger storm that manages to produce gusty winds, but still with weak shear and weak forcing with the front, the severe weather threat is low.
Look for high temperatures each afternoon to be in the upper-80s to low-90s - around normal for late August.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Very low chance for lingering rain across the Plateau Friday, but otherwise it'll be a mostly dry day with still seasonable temperatures.
Temperatures slowly creep up this weekend as the ridge builds towards the east.
Still, it should be a nice weekend with temperatures in the low-90s west of the Plateau and dry conditions.
The upper-level ridge shifts more overhead next week, and above normal temperatures will make their return in time for September.
High temperatures are expected to warm into the mid and upper-90s.
Low chance for an afternoon pop-up storm, but overall it looks to be mainly dry next week.