Outflow Dominant
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 10:54 AM
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Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday evening, primarily for areas west of Interstate twenty-four. There is a low severe weather threat for strong to damaging winds. Low to medium thunderstorm chances continue Thursday afternoon. Seasonable temperatures will warm into the mid and upper-nineties next week with mostly dry conditions. A Great Lakes troff digs deep to the north. Northwest flow pushing an embedded wave into West Tennessee. Cape values hit one thousand near the river. Steep low-level lapse rates rise into the heavy air. Short-term guidance is struggling with the line. Moving southeast, choking on its own breath. With poor shear to lean on, the storms can never hold. They suffocate early, bleeding out before sunset. Diminishing between eight and ten P.M. Weak shear means short-lived storms. They burn bright and collapse under their own weight. No severe threat can hold its form. Outflow dominant. Outflow dominant! Outflow dominant! Outflow dominant! Outflow dominant!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1048 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday evening, primarily for areas west of I-24. There is a low severe weather threat for strong to damaging winds.
- Low to medium thunderstorm chances continue Thursday afternoon.
- Seasonable temperatures will warm into the mid and upper-90s next week with mostly dry conditions.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Satellite imagery this morning shows a large upper-level ridge over the western CONUS with a trough located near the Great Lakes area.
Northwest flow is set up over Middle TN between these features with an embedded shortwave.
This has developed a line of thunderstorms that are currently moving southeast through West TN. Short-term guidance is struggling on how to evolve this cluster through the late morning/afternoon.
Current mesoanalysis shows CAPE values around 1000 J/kg near the TN River with steep low-level lapse rates.
Shear values are poor though which would indicate that this cluster should become outflow dominant and weaken, not posing a severe threat.
Confidence is low with additional development this afternoon now with this line approaching from the northwest.
Low to medium rain chances still persist in the forecast though, mainly for southwest Middle TN. With any activity that does develop, shear continues to be the limiting factor.
Can't rule out any strong to potentially damaging winds through this evening, but with weak shear, any stronger storms are likely short-lived and not organized.
Thunderstorm activity and the severe weather threat looks to diminish between 8-10pm.
The aforementioned Great Lakes trough then allows for a weak cold front to push south through the area Thursday.
This will bring another round of scattered thunderstorms again primarily during the afternoon and evening.
Still can't rule out a stronger storm that manages to produce gusty winds, but still with weak shear and weak forcing with the front, the severe weather threat is low.
Look for high temperatures each afternoon to be in the upper-80s to low-90s - around normal for late August.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Very low chance for lingering rain across the Plateau Friday, but otherwise it'll be a mostly dry day with still seasonable temperatures.
Temperatures slowly creep up this weekend as the ridge builds towards the east.
Still, it should be a nice weekend with temperatures in the low-90s west of the Plateau and dry conditions.
The upper-level ridge shifts more overhead next week, and above normal temperatures will make their return in time for September.
High temperatures are expected to warm into the mid and upper-90s.
Low chance for an afternoon pop-up storm, but overall it looks to be mainly dry next week.