Above 1000
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 7:56 AM
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Updated at seven fifty-three A.M. Central Daylight Time Wednesday August twenty-six two thousand twenty-six. Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances return late morning today into Thursday. There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms through this evening, mainly west of Interstate twenty-four. Main concern will be strong to damaging winds with any storms today. Hot and dry next week with highs in the low to mid nineties. The surface high slides northeast into the void! Dew points pushing into the upper sixties to mid seventies! Moisture building, heavy and destroyed! A short wave spinning round the Four Corners ridge! Southerly flow crossing over the Tennessee River! Bulk shear holding twenty-five knots at the edge! Lapse rates are poor but the sky is alive! Falling to fifteen knots as we reach Nashville! The atmosphere begins to dive! And the atmosphere is breaking through the cloud line! We feel the storm rising up with the heat! Convective energy burning through the daytime! Surpassing energy above one thousand! An upper level troff digs into the Great Lakes! Pushing a weakening cold front down through the night! Wednesday into Thursday, whatever it takes! CAPE drops under five hundred, forcing stays weak! Another round of scattered thunderstorms! No safety left to seek! MARGINAL FORCING! TROFFING PATTERN REMAINS! TWENTY KNOT SHEAR LINGERING OVER THE PLATEAU! THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO CONSUME US ALL! LOW TO MID NINETIES STANDING TALL! And the atmosphere is breaking through the cloud line! We feel the storm rising up with the heat! Convective energy burning through the daytime! Surpassing energy above one thousand! HOT AND DRY! THE RIDGE WILL LINGER! ABOVE ONE THOUSAND!
The forecast discussion
NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 753 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances return late morning today into Thursday.
There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms through this evening, mainly west of I-24.
- Main concern will be strong to damaging winds with any storms today.
- Hot and dry next week with highs in the low to mid 90s.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Surface high pressure has slid off to our northeast but it will continue to influence our weather for the early part of Wednesday.
We will start the day out with the lower humidity but unfortunately the humidity will be returning by the afternoon with dew points pushing into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
A short wave will spin around the upper level ridge set up over the Four Corners Region and that will bring the return of southerly flow.
This short wave will also bring scattered thunderstorms late morning into the afternoon mainly to the west of I-65. Bulk shear near the TN River will be 25 knots falling off to around 15 knots as you approach Nashville.
Afternoon CAPE will make it above 1000 j/kg with overall poor lapse rates.
This will keep the severe threat low but can't rule out gusty winds with any more developed storms near the TN River.
Highs will push into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
An upper level trough digging into the Great Lakes will then push a weakening cold front south Wednesday night into Thursday.
This will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Shear will be under 15 knots and CAPE will be under 500 j/kg with marginal forcing.
This will keep the severe threat near zero.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon as we remain in a troughing pattern.
Shear will be near 20 knots with around 1000 j/kg but forcing will be marginal at best.
This will keep the severe threat low.
A few showers may linger overnight Thursday over the Plateau, otherwise dry.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Late week into the weekend the strong upper level ridge over the Four Corners Region will start to push east.
This will bring the return of dry weather.
Highs will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend.
The upper level ridge will build east early next week and that will warm highs into the low to mid 90s.
The upper level ridge will linger over the region into the middle part of next week with conditions remaining hot and overall dry.