Low Confidence Forecast
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 11:55 AM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Medium shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday. Currently no severe weather expected, but watch for gusty winds. Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then a little warmer to start off next week. Stationary front! Lower Mississippi Valley! Embedded shortwaves! Model inconsistency! Low confidence forecast! Diurnal instability minimum! Low confidence forecast! Midnight precipitation! Tapping the environment! Watch for gusty winds! Ohio River Valley high! Cooler! Drier! Embedded shortwave features! Zonal flow aloft! Heat indices near one hundred! Upper level ridging! Low confidence forecast! Low confidence!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1129 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
- Medium shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday.
Currently no severe weather expected, but watch for gusty winds.
- Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then a little warmer to start off next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
This morning's 12Z launches confirm a surface high situated over the OH River Valley, leading to cooler, drier air being filtered into Middle TN via northeasterly winds.
As a result, one more day of pleasant weather is on tap today before we are reminded that it is still August.
As a surface low and attendant stationary front meander about the Lower MS River Valley tomorrow/Wednesday, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the rise.
Precip onset with this system has trended a little later, now looking like the main shot of rain will not start up until after midnight Wednesday.
It's worth noting that the CAMs all have a very different grasp on the convective coverage and timing for the 24 hour period between 10AM Wednesday and 10AM Thursday...there doesn't look to be a washout at any point, but many of these "waves" of showers and storms are associated with embedded shortwave features simulated inconsistently from model to model.
To sum it up, this is a pretty low confidence forecast.
Severe weather is not currently expected, especially if the trend continues to place the bulk of the convection over Middle TN overnight at the diurnal instability minimum.
However, gusty winds cannot be ruled out if any thunderstorms are able to tap into the environment at an opportune time.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
After the front finally clears the region on Thursday night, things return to seasonable normals through the weekend.
Nondescript surface patterns and zonal flow aloft put temperatures right around normal (90 degrees) with heat indices just barely approaching 100. However, the extended forecast for next week does look to heat up some more.
Warm fronts lifting over the area in conjunction with upper level ridging spell out another hot period for Middle TN starting on Monday.
Too early to make any calls right now but we may be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria again as early as Tuesday of next week.