One Quarter Inch
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 5:38 AM
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Lyrics
Look for a dry, cooler evening and overnight period. Fog is possible across the river valleys in the morning. Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off after Thursday. We should stay rain-free this weekend. Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then a little warmer to start off next week. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. A dry, stable air mass locked into place. Surface low developing over the Arklatex. A troff extending east across the Tennessee Valley. Rain chances pushed back... pushed toward later start times. Return flow picks up, pulling moisture from the south. A gradual, steady warming trend carrying into next week. The boundary stalls, the Gulf Coast troff hesitates, We wait for the break, but the dry air holds the gate. Multi-day rain chances, but the forecast total crumbles. The clouds roll over Middle Tennessee, but no thunder rumbles. The numbers shrink into the dirt. The moisture starves before it hits the ground. We wait for water that can not be found. Seven whole days and the dirt stays dry, One quarter inch. LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH! SPREAD ACROSS SEVEN DAYS! LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH! BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL! APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA! Tapering off. Rain-free weekend. One quarter inch. Nothing left.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 536 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
- Look for a dry, cooler evening and overnight period.
Fog is possible across the river valleys in the morning.
- Low to medium rain and storm chances return Wednesday and Wednesday night, then taper off after Thursday.
We should stay rain-free this weekend.
- Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms, then a little warmer to start off next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes continues to provide Middle Tennessee with a dry, stable and relatively cool air mass.
We've one more cool night to look forward to before return flow picks up tomorrow and brings us more normal August temperatures by the afternoon.
After that, look for a gradual, but steady warming trend that will carry over into next week.
Rain and storm chances will return to the forecast Wednesday and Wednesday night as a surface low develops over the Arklatex and a trough of low pressure extends eastward across the Gulf Coast states and the Tennessee Valley.
However, as often happens once a dry air mass gets locked in, rain and storm chances are getting pushed toward later start times.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
It now appears that the best rain chances will hold off until Thursday and then start to taper off Thursday night and Friday.
It still looks as though we've a rain-free weekend to look forward to. And even with multi-day rain chances, storm total QPF values remain unimpressive.
Indeed, the bulk of the mid state can expect less than 1/4" of rainfall spread across the next 7 days, although a few spots -- mainly in areas near the TN/AL border and along the Cumberland Plateau -- might see as much as 1/2".
Either way, we can expect below normal rainfall for the next week.
Temperatures, on the other hand, will continue to warm through the weekend, and much of the mid state might actually approach Heat Advisory criteria by next Monday and Tuesday.
Otherwise, severe storm risk this week looks to be very low.