Poor Lapse Rates
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 5:52 AM
Lyrics
An upper level low is pinned over the eastern part of the state... Lingering showers over the Cumberland Plateau... DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD SET IN BY TWO A.M.! PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAIN FELL! LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID-SIXTIES TO SEVENTY! The Bermuda High pushes east! A trough digs deep into the Great Lakes! Shortwaves spin around the ridge! CAPE IS RISING BUT LAPSE RATES STAY POOR! WEAK SHEAR! POOR FORCING! AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX NEAR ONE HUNDRED! SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA! HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY BUT SEVERE THREAT STAYS LOW! NEAR ONE HUNDRED! I AM DROWNING IN THE PWATS! HEAT INDEX NEAR ONE HUNDRED! FORCING SPREADS WEST ALL THE WAY TO NASHVILLE! THURSDAY AFTERNOON! HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID-NINETIES! LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO STABILITY! BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER TICKS UP! HEAVY RAIN IN EVERY CELL! AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX NEAR ONE HUNDRED! SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA! HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY BUT SEVERE THREAT STAYS LOW! NEAR ONE HUNDRED! I AM DROWNING IN THE PWATS! HEAT INDEX NEAR ONE HUNDRED! On Saturday... A trough flattens the ridge... Pushing the better forcing to our south... ZONAL FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK! POOR LAPSE RATES! WEAK SHEAR! NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED! BUT THE RAIN IS SO HEAVY! THE RAIN IS SO HEAVY! LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES! THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY! HEAT INDEX ONE HUNDRED! ONE HUNDRED! DRY BY TWO A.M.! DRY BY TWO A.M.!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 545 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026
- Scattered afternoon showers mainly over the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday.
- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the whole area this weekend into next week.
Severe weather is not expected but heavy rain is possible.
- Seasonal temperatures.
Afternoon heat index values near 100 by the end of the week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
An upper level low is set up over the eastern part of the state.
This has lead to some lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Plateau.
We will see them diminish over the next few hours and dry conditions should set by 2 AM. Some patchy fog will be possible overnight mainly over areas that saw rain on Tuesday.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s to around 70.
The upper level low will get phased into the flow as the Bermuda high pushes east and a trough digs into the Great Lakes.
The upper level low will still bring enough forcing to see scattered showers again tomorrow afternoon.
The best chances will be along the Plateau but a few showers will be possible as far west as Nashville.
Lapse rates will remain poor and that overall will limit thunderstorms but CAPE will be a bit higher and a few more thunderstorms will be possible compared to the last few days.
With the Bermuda high set up further to the east we will see short waves spin around the ridge as we head into Thursday.
This is going to keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Chances will also spread further west covering much of the area.
The best chances will once again be during the afternoon and early evening.
CAPE will be a bit higher on Thursday but lapse rates and shear will remain poor, this will keep the severe threat very low.
Highs will be warmer pushing in to the low to mid 90s.
Afternoon heat index values will be near 100 on Thursday.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
We won't see much change in the weather pattern on Friday and Saturday with short waves continuing to spin around the upper level ridge.
This will keep a medium chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast with the highest chances during the afternoon and evenings.
We will see plenty of CAPE but lapse rates and shear stay poor keeping the severe threat low.
PWATs will tick up some and heavy rain will be likely with any thunderstorms.
On Saturday a trough pushing into the Great Lakes will flatten the ridge some and pushing the better forcing to our south.
We will still hold onto a low chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Zonal flow to weak troughing sets up next week bringing low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Highs will remain in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values near 100.