Drop To 30
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 5:07 PM
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Lyrics
Widespread frost and a few spots with freezing temperatures again tonight. Dry the next few days and a little warmer. Rain chances return Wednesday evening. Some thunder is possible, but no severe weather is expected at this time. Widespread freezing temperatures expected next weekend. Sheltered valleys registered thirty on the wire! Morning commute through the river fog fire! Middle Tennessee standing cold in the clear! Temperatures moderate, but the winter is near! A surface low forms on the mid-Mississippi line! Global Forecast System chasing European design! Mid-level lapse rates are healthy and steep! Low-level shear where the dark currents creep! Surface instability lacking in the night, But the second energy lobe is coming into sight! A shot of cold air following behind the storm! Nothing we hold will ever stay warm! When the valley shelters from the quiet light, We drop to 30 in the frozen night! Second lobe rounding the longwave track! National Blend of Models holding rain back! Showers and rumbles on Wednesday evening fall! No severe threat, but cold air takes it all! Will the models align before the weekend arrives? Only the freeze in the valley survives! Mid-Mississippi surface low! Where will the trajectory go? Healthy lapse rates! Shear in the sky! Watch the last warm afternoon die! Unleashed! Cold air unleashed! From the river to the frozen east! A shot of cold air following behind the storm! Nothing we hold will ever stay warm! When the valley shelters from the quiet light, We drop to 30 in the frozen night! Widespread freezing! Widespread freezing! Next weekend comes! We drop to 30!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 505 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
- Widespread frost and a few spots with freezing temperatures again tonight.
- Dry the next few days and a little warmer.
Rain chances return Wednesday evening.
Some thunder is possible, but no severe weather is expected at this time.
- Widespread freezing temperatures expected next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1017 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Well, we got our first widespread frost of the season out of the way.
Most everybody remained at or above freezing, however a few spots did register 30, which tells me there were some 20s around Middle TN in our normally cooler/sheltered spots and valleys.
The sun is out in all its glory and while it'll be cool, a fantastic fall day is underway.
Expect more chilly temperatures and frost tomorrow with a couple of spots reaching freezing or just below again.
Fog near bodies of water will also be prevalent, so keep this in mind for the Monday morning commute.
As we move into the start of the week, temperatures will begin to moderate a bit.
Afternoon highs will be several degrees warmer Mon-Wed and morning lows a touch warmer, too.
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1017 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Confidence is growing that our next weather maker will be in here Wednesday evening.
The longwave pattern over the eastern half of the US will allow for the first of (potentially) two lobes of energy to develop a surface low over the mid-Mississippi Wednesday afternoon.
The question is, where will this sfc low track?
Yesterday, the GFS had the low near Memphis.
Today, it's much further north and much more in line with the Euro solution.
The catch is, it's still not as far north as the Euro continues to show it, so I have to imagine the GFS isn't done with its adjustments on this system.
In the end, showers and a a few rumbles of thunder will become possible Wednesday evening for most of Middle TN. There is some shear with this system and mid-level lapse rates are healthy, but sfc instability is greatly lacking.
For this reason, I'm not concerned about severe weather at this point.
The trajectory of this upper system is going to dictate what happens after Wednesday evening.
Because of the more southerly track the GFS has, additional showers are being shown Thursday and Thursday night as a second lob of energy rounds the base of the longwave pattern.
The Euro does not have this, which is why NBM PoPs for the second half of the week aren't as high as they otherwise would be. So, we'll have to see what the next couple days of model runs do with this system.
What is agreed upon is the additional shot of cold air behind this system.
Widespread 20s look increasingly possible for morning lows next weekend.