Exceeding 3 Inches
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 5:11 PM
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Updated at four fifty-four P.M. Central Standard Time Tuesday November third twenty twenty-six. Soaking rains move in late this evening into Wednesday along with breezy winds. Low risk ten to twenty percent of Flash Flooding tonight into Wednesday morning, especially for areas along and west of Interstate sixty-five. Gradual cooling trend starts tomorrow. Overnight lows in the thirties this weekend. Upper level troff lifting out of the Central Plains. Upper seventies before the evening clouds take over. The pressure gradient builds quiet tension across Middle Tennessee. Precipitation reaches the Tennessee River after ten P.M. The stacked low slows the cold front over the west. Precipitable water pushing above one point seven five inches. Clarksville to Lafayette. Southwest to Lawrenceburg. A saturated profile hanging over us in the dark. Strong wind shear, forty to fifty knots in the soundings. Surface energy limited, but the dynamic forcing holds. Most unstable convective available potential energy rising to five hundred Joules per kilogram. The column cannot hold another drop. The stalled boundary waits to break. Localized flooding creeps through the dark. Water stacking up on the western corridor. Rain totals soaring past two point five. Exceeding three inches. EXCEEDING THREE INCHES! EXCEEDING THREE INCHES! ONE POINT SEVEN FIVE INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER! FIVE HUNDRED JOULES PER KILOGRAM! LAWRENCEBURG TO LAFAYETTE IT ALL COLLAPSES! EXCEEDING THREE INCHES! Winds diminish. Frontal passage. Quiet after dark.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 454 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
- Soaking rains move in late this evening into Wednesday along with breezy winds.
- Low risk (10-20%) of Flash Flooding tonight into Wednesday morning, especially for areas along and west of I-65.
- Gradual cooling trend starts tomorrow.
Overnight lows in the 30s this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1232 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
An upper level trough with a strong surface low will lift out of the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest tonight.
This will bring more active weather to Middle TN. Before that we will get to enjoy quiet weather into the evening with increasing clouds.
Highs will be warm pushing into the mid to upper 70s with some areas seeing 80. The increased pressure gradient will bring breezy winds this afternoon gusting up to 30 mph.
As the low pushes into the Upper Midwest it will push a cold front east into Middle TN. Precip ahead of the front looks to reach the TN River after 10 PM and will continue to spread east during the overnight.
The upper level low and trough will become stacked for a time Tuesday night and that will slow the progression of the cold front mainly over the western part of Middle TN. PWATs ahead of the front will be very high for this time of year pushing above 1.75". This will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain with the heaviest rain expected mainly from Clarksville to Lafayette southwest to Lawrenceburg between 1 AM and 10 AM.
Overall instability will be limited with this system but we should see up to 250 j/kg build in ahead of the front with MUCAPE up to 500 j/kg.
It is a very dynamic system with strong wind shear, bulk shear will be 40-50 knots.
Sounding profiles will be very saturated and with the lack of CAPE the severe threat will be low but can't rule out gusty winds with any stronger storms.
The bigger impact with the instability will be heavy rain.
If we see more CAPE heavy rain will be likely given the high PWATs and we could see some localized flooding.
Rain totals will generally range from 1-2.5" across the area but there is a low to medium chance of totals exceeding 3" from Clarksville to Lafayette southwest to Lawrenceburg.
Breezy winds with gusts up to 30 mph will continue ahead of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Winds should diminish with the frontal passage.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
Things dry out by Wednesday night with upper level flow becoming zonal for the rest of the week.
This will keep the weather quiet with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A short wave trough and push of cold air will make it to the Great Lakes over the weekend.
Some of that cold air will make it here and will bring below normal highs with them falling into the lower 60s.
Overnight lows will also be cold falling into the 30s and a frost will be likely starting Saturday night.
Lows below 32 are also looking likely for the Plateau starting Saturday night.
Troughing will continue into early next week with the cold temps sticking around.
No precip expected for the extended period.