Ten Degrees Above Normal
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 11:31 AM
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Dry Monday and Tuesday, then another soaking rainfall will arrive during the middle of the week. Warmest temperatures will occur on Tuesday, with a gradual cooling trend afterwards. The shortwave troff exits into the night A temporary calm before the sky tears open The quiet benign transitional period is a trap Tightened pressure gradient! Southerly winds rising! Stout southerly flow pulls the stagnant heat upward Breezy south winds gusting to twenty-five miles per hour Upper seventies spreading across Middle Tennessee on Tuesday afternoon An unnatural warmth suffocating the land The cold front sharpens its blade in the dark Waiting for late Tuesday night to strike The atmospheric column fills with precipitable water Near the ninety-ninth percentile of pure doom This unnatural warmth heralds our decay It is ten degrees above normal! Line of thunderstorms arriving in the early morning hours Diurnal minimum of instability cannot halt the downpour Very heavy rain rates drowning the midnight darkness Training storms forming along the boundary Patchy fog will linger over the ruins on Thursday Near ninety-ninth percentile moisture! Heavy rain rates overnight! Ten degrees above normal! Gradual cooling until nothing remains!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
- Dry Monday and Tuesday, then another soaking rainfall will arrive during the middle of the week.
- Warmest temperatures will occur on Tuesday, with a gradual cooling trend afterwards.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026
An axis of showers is making its final push through Middle TN around midnight.
As a shortwave trough exits the region, rain will come to an end by sunrise.
Expect dry conditions for the rest of the day with mild temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
In the benign transitional period between systems, Tuesday will also feature dry conditions for the majority of the day.
However, stout southerly flow ahead of the a cold front will increase temperatures to the upper 70s on Tuesday afternoon, which is almost 10 degrees above normal.
The tightened pressure gradient will also contribute to breezy south winds with frequent gusts up to 25 MPH. Next round of rain arrives with the cold front late Tuesday night.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026
In the early morning hours on Wednesday, a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned cold front will move through Middle TN. The diurnal minimum of instability during FROPA bodes well for our mitigated severe weather potential, but PWATs are quite high (almost at the 99th percentile), so rain rates will be very heavy overnight.
Given the forward motion of the front looking fairly progressive, widespread flash flooding is not expected.
Will need to monitor individual storm motions along the front producing training storms with heavy rainfall, but this will be an overall beneficial rainfall for Middle TN. Rainfall should clear the area by midnight Wednesday night.
Some patchy fog will be supported behind the front Thursday morning.
Things cool back off to near normal in the upper 60s behind the front on Thursday as light post-frontal showers linger.
We'll have some low-end rain chances (less than 20%) on Saturday, but other than that, expect dry and cool conditions through next weekend.