Stout Southerly Flow
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 12:26 AM
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Updated at eleven twenty-one P.M. Central Standard Time Sunday November first twenty twenty-six. Dry Monday and Tuesday, then another soaking rainfall will arrive during the middle of the week. Warmest temperatures will occur on Tuesday, with a gradual cooling trend afterwards. A shortwave troff is exiting the region tonight Showers making their final push under midnight light Sun rises on a benign transitional space Low to mid-seventies filling up the place The pressure gradient tightens up, the heat begins to rise Breezy south winds blowing dust into our eyes Upper seventies landing nearly ten degrees above Pushing through the afternoon, pushing what we love Feel the heat building up right ahead of the line Late Tuesday night we leave the calm behind Wind gusts twenty-five miles per hour on the low Riding the wave of this stout southerly flow Cold front charging in early Wednesday morning Showers and thunderstorms firing off a warning Precipitable water up at ninety-nine percent Soaking down the blacktop till the sky is spent Feel the heat building up right ahead of the line Late Tuesday night we leave the calm behind Wind gusts twenty-five miles per hour on the low Riding the wave of this stout southerly flow Stout southerly flow Riding the stout southerly flow Clear it all out by midnight Cooling down to normal Stout southerly flow
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1121 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026
- Dry Monday and Tuesday, then another soaking rainfall will arrive during the middle of the week.
- Warmest temperatures will occur on Tuesday, with a gradual cooling trend afterwards.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026
An axis of showers is making its final push through Middle TN around midnight.
As a shortwave trough exits the region, rain will come to an end by sunrise.
Expect dry conditions for the rest of the day with mild temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
In the benign transitional period between systems, Tuesday will also feature dry conditions for the majority of the day.
However, stout southerly flow ahead of the a cold front will increase temperatures to the upper 70s on Tuesday afternoon, which is almost 10 degrees above normal.
The tightened pressure gradient will also contribute to breezy south winds with frequent gusts up to 25 MPH. Next round of rain arrives with the cold front late Tuesday night.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026
In the early morning hours on Wednesday, a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned cold front will move through Middle TN. The diurnal minimum of instability during FROPA bodes well for our mitigated severe weather potential, but PWATs are quite high (almost at the 99th percentile), so rain rates will be very heavy overnight.
Given the forward motion of the front looking fairly progressive, widespread flash flooding is not expected.
Will need to monitor individual storm motions along the front producing training storms with heavy rainfall, but this will be an overall beneficial rainfall for Middle TN. Rainfall should clear the area by midnight Wednesday night.
Some patchy fog will be supported behind the front Thursday morning.
Things cool back off to near normal in the upper 60s behind the front on Thursday as light post-frontal showers linger.
We'll have some low-end rain chances (less than 20%) on Saturday, but other than that, expect dry and cool conditions through next weekend.