Down To Low 60s
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 10:51 PM
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Lyrics
Medium to high rain chances spread area-wide on Sunday. Dry and cool for a few days before another high chance for a soaking rainfall middle of next week. Yeah! Whoa-oh! Listen up, darling, that shortwave troff is rolling in! Hey sweet thing, check out this saturated profile Light rain overspreading, gonna stay a little while Nearest thunder's way down south along the Gulf Coast line But you and me honey, we got plenty of time Precipitable water sitting way up high Ninetieth percentile pouring from the sky, yeah! Forecast soundings say there ain't no instability Just steady drizzling heat and pure chemistry Sunday morning downpours, let the thunder roll Gonna take a little ride and lose all control! Light rain falling, but we got the heat! Steady widespread drizzle tearing up the street! Below normal temperatures, feeling so complete Yeah baby, we're dropping down to low 60s! One point two inches hanging in the air West of Interstate sixty-five, we don't even care Shortwave pulls away, Monday's gonna dry So take a bite of the storm before it passes by! Forecast soundings say there ain't no instability Just steady drizzling heat and pure chemistry Sunday morning downpours, let the thunder roll Gonna take a little ride and lose all control! Light rain falling, but we got the heat! Steady widespread drizzle tearing up the street! Below normal temperatures, feeling so complete Yeah baby, we're dropping down to low 60s! Yeah! Low sixties, baby! Whoa-oh-oh! Monday stays mild, but today we get soaked! Yeah, we're dropping down to low 60s!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1025 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
- Medium to high rain chances spread area-wide on Sunday.
- Dry and cool for a few days before another high chance for a soaking rainfall middle of next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Showers are continuing to overspread the area this evening associated with a shortwave trough.
These rain rates are very light and the nearest thunder is along the Gulf Coast.
Expect this activity to increase in coverage throughout the day on Sunday, remaining at a steady drizzle.
Forecast soundings depict a saturated profile through the column with very little instability.
Combined with PWATs above the 90th percentile around 1.2", expect a steady widespread rain Sunday morning with occasional downpours and rumbles of thunder, especially west of I-65. The main impact from this rain will be a much cooler day on Sunday with temperatures even a bit below normal in the low 60s.
After the shortwave and its resultant moisture pulls away, Monday looks dry and mild in between systems.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
The majority of Tuesday is also in the transitional period awaiting the next weather maker.
Dual low pressure systems are slated to eject from the Rockies on Tuesday morning: one with a trajectory over the Great Lakes and another with a track along the I-40 corridor.
The southernmost surface low will be more impactful for Middle TN, but it looks like we are in the sweet spot in between favorable severe weather ingredients.
The Great Lakes system will be displaced too far north to cause any impacts.
Forecast surface analyses depict the southern system deepening to the point of occlusion by the time it reaches the Mississippi River on Wednesday morning, centered over west TN. This will help keep the axis of highest instability confined to the Gulf Coast during FROPA and limit our severe weather potential.
Again, the main impact from this next system will be another good soaking for Middle TN. Storm total QPF probabilities of rainfall > 2" are about 50-60% per the LREF next week.
As the occluded low migrates off to the east on Thursday and Friday, wraparound showers from this same system will continue to impact parts of Middle TN for several days.
Broad upper level troughing per the LREF supports much cooler temperatures (finally near normal in the mid 60s) and 20-40% PoPs through at least Friday morning.
We finally dry back out on Friday evening but remain cool.