No Instability
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 11:23 AM
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Low rain chances in our southwest counties for trick-or-treat. Medium to high rain chances spread area-wide late tonight into Sunday. A high chance for soaking rainfall middle of next week. The departing high pressure leaves us cloudy and mild A southeast breeze picking up to twenty miles per hour Temperatures hovering in the sixties to lower seventies A dry column holding back the phantom rainfall Radar returns showing up long before anything hits the ground An approaching upper level troff streams moisture off the Plains Saturating the profile through the majority of the column East of Interstate sixty-five will be lucky to see one half inch Most areas collecting less than one inch total There is no energy left in this sky There is nothing left to ignite SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE THROUGH MIDDAY! NO INSTABILITY TO BURN! NO INSTABILITY! WE COLLECT LESS THAN ONE INCH UNDER SATURATED AIR! NO INSTABILITY! A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT! NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER! NOT ENOUGH TO SAVE US! PASSAGE OF THE TROFF TAPERS OFF INTO SUNDAY NIGHT! East of Interstate sixty-five... Lucky to receive one half inch... No instability...
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1123 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
- Low rain chances in our southwest counties for trick-or-treat.
Medium to high rain chances spread area-wide late tonight into Sunday.
- A high chance for soaking rainfall middle of next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
The rest of the day will feature a departing high pressure pattern.
It will be cloudy and mild across the Mid State with an increasing southeast breeze, maybe as high as 20 mph at times.
Temperatures will remain in the 60s to lower 70s through candy time.
We continue to watch an approaching trough and swatch of deep moisture over the Plains and Lower Ms Valley that will move into our area late tonight through Sunday.
Moisture streaming out ahead of this system may produce a few very light raindrops in our southwest counties during trick-or-treat, but we continue to expect most of the area to stay rain-free this evening.
A lot of the atmosphere column is still quite dry, so radar returns will be showing up well before any measurable rainfall begins.
Showers will overspread the Mid State late tonight, and especially Sunday morning.
Forecast soundings depict a saturated profile through the majority of the column with no instability.
This means mostly light to moderate showers with the highest pops Sunday morning through midday.
The higher rainfall totals will occur west of I-65, but even these areas will not experience any "drought busting" amounts.
Most areas will collect less than 1 inch, and most areas east of I-65 will be lucky to receive one half inch.
The lack of instability means we are not worried about strong or severe storms, but a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.
Passage of the upper level trough will allow showers to taper off late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
The low level pattern will stay the same with a mild southeast breeze.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Mild and dry conditions are expected Monday into early Tuesday as we look upstream for the next active system.
That system will be a much more potent low pressure center that will bring soaking rainfall across the area by midweek.
Deep moisture, gusty breezes, and strong lift will develop by Tuesday evening, bringing a high chance for showers across the area Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
Models are varied with the exact details of this storm system, but models are confident we will have potential for heavy showers at times, especially Wednesday.
The system looks quite dynamic, so some storms should be expected.
However, the shear and instability parameters do not appear to line up for much of a severe storm risk.
It is something we will have to keep an eye on.
While this weekend's rain event looks like a potential under- achiever, the midweek storm system could be an over-achiever.
Widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals are expected, but some spots could pick up more than 2 inches.
That would certainly not end the drought, but it would pause the trend for a while.
Some showers may linger Thursday and perhaps early Friday as trailing troughiness impacts the region.
It looks like dry and seasonable air will come in later Friday, setting us up for a nice fall weekend.