Saturated Column
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 12:28 AM
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Low rain chances for trick-or-treating Saturday evening with medium to high rain chances starting around midnight Saturday and lasting through Sunday. Another medium to high chance for rain middle of next week. Zero zero zulu! Broad ridge breakdown! Tennessee Valley! Eighty degrees! Eighty degrees! It breaks! It— Five P.M.! Nine P.M.! Southwest counties— Thirty percent chance on the pavement! Shortwave troff sliding east! Ten forty-five P.M. discussion! Light rain! Light rain! Trick-or-treaters untouched in the east until midnight! Midnight hits! Zero cape! One point two inches! Precipitable water! Ninetieth percentile surge! Interstate sixty-five split! Heavy downpours west! Fifteen percent lightning potential! Cool rain falling! Mid sixties on Sunday afternoon! NO INSTABILITY! FULL SATURATION! THE RIDGE IS DEAD! THE TROFF TAKES OVER! Precipitable water sky high! Ninetieth percentile drowning the sky! Zero cape, zero spark! Downpours heavy in the dark! Everything soaked in a saturated column! Fizzle out by Sunday evening... Mid sixties... Troff... Silence.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
- Low rain chances for trick-or-treating Saturday evening with medium to high rain chances starting around midnight Saturday and lasting through Sunday.
- Another medium to high chance for rain middle of next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
This evening's 00Z upper air analysis placed a broad midlevel ridge centered over the TN Valley.
This will translate into well above normal temperatures again on Saturday, warming to near 80 degrees again.
While this ridge breaks down throughout the day, a shortwave trough will usher in our first rainfall in a few weeks.
This first shot of precip arriving Saturday evening does pose at least a 30% chance of impacting trick-or-treaters in our southwestern counties from 5PM to 9 PM. On the bright side, there is negligible thunder potential and rain rates will be very light in the evening.
The rest of Middle TN should be unscathed by showers until well after midnight.
Showers will overspread the area overnight into Sunday as the shortwave progresses eastward.
Forecast soundings depict a saturated profile through the majority of the column with no instability.
Combined with PWATs above the 90th percentile around 1.2", expect a steady widespread rain Sunday morning with occasional heavy downpours, especially west of I-65. While thunder chances are very low (<15%) in this saturated regime, a few rumbles Sunday morning and afternoon aren't out of the question.
Under very cloudy skies and the cool rain, Sunday's temperatures will be pleasantly cool in the mid 60s.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
This shortwave and its resultant precip will fizzle out on Sunday evening.
After this, the surface pattern looks fairly nondescript on Monday and Tuesday for Middle TN, resulting in benign weather and mild temperatures.
This is a brief transitional period between weather systems.
Forecast surface analyses place a strong low pressure system over the Central Plains on Tuesday afternoon, which is expected to deepen to the point of occlusion by the time it reaches Middle TN on Wednesday.
While details are still fuzzy this far out, models are in fairly good agreement on another shot of rain associated with a cold front passing through the TN Valley on Wednesday.
The more favorable overlap of instability and shear is displaced to the south over central MS/AL, but we'll still most likely have enough instability to support thunderstorms during the FROPA on Wednesday afternoon.
As the surface low continues to deepen after migrating off to the Virginias on Thursday and Friday, wraparound showers from this same system will continue to impact parts of Middle TN for several days.
Broad upper level troughing per the LREF supports much cooler temperatures (finally near normal in the mid 60s) and 20-40% PoPs through at least Friday morning.
We finally dry back out on Friday evening but remain cool.