Deep Moisture Arrives
Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 12:16 PM
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Dry weather continues with warm days and seasonably cool nights through daytime Saturday. Very low chances for rain Saturday evening, then medium to high chances for rain late Saturday night through Sunday. Another medium to high chance for rain middle of next week. The surface high pressure hangs silent and still Beneath an upper ridge that locks us in warm light Daytime highs reaching seventy to eighty-two degrees Patchy late night fog creeping down river basins Clear skies fading into a shield of cirrus haze The prophecy foretells the coming of the dusk Clouds thicken on Saturday as nightfall descends Seventy-two degrees at six P.M. falls to sixty-two by midnight The candy grab stays calm under the grey shroud But deep in the west, the axis turns The upper ridge is cast aside The atmosphere begins to cry Across the dark and silent night Deep moisture arrives Late Saturday night the ancient troff moves in An axis of vapor breaking through the drought Rainfall totals projected less than one point zero inches Meager convective available potential energy remains low A single rumble of thunder echoing over dry earth No severe salvation, only a gentle weeping sky The upper ridge is cast aside The atmosphere begins to cry Across the dark and silent night Deep moisture arrives Deep moisture arrives Deep moisture arrives A pause in the worsening drought Deep moisture arrives
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
- Dry weather continues with warm days and seasonably cool nights through daytime Saturday.
- Very low chances for rain Saturday evening, then medium to high chances for rain late Saturday night through Sunday.
- Another medium to high chance for rain middle of next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Surface high pressure under an upper ridge will keep our wx dry the rest of today and Friday.
Daytime highs will continue to be warm, reaching the 70s to lower 80s.
Tonight will be seasonably cool, in the 40s.
Patchy late night fog is likely along lakes and rivers.
Skies will stay clear today and tonight, then we will see a shield of cirrus clouds mixing with sunshine on Friday.
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Going into Saturday, mid and high clouds will thicken across the area, but the daytime hours will still be quite warm.
The Saturday evening candy grab looks dry as models continue to delay rain chances until later Saturday night.
A few sprinkles could creep into areas southwest of Nashville just after dark, but it looks like nothing to worry about.
The evening will be cloudy and mild with temperatures in the lower 70s around 6 PM, falling to the lower 60s by midnight.
As the ridge moves out and a trough / axis of deep moisture arrives, rain chances will jump late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
We are confident the system will bring rain, but it does not look impressive in terms of rainfall amounts or instability.
The latest rainfall forecast shows less than one inch, so not really much drought relief.
A rumble of thunder could occur, but we are not expecting any significant thunderstorm activity.
Most of the rain will taper off by Sunday evening with dry and mild conditions returning for Monday.
A stronger weather system moves in late Tuesday or Wednesday with a better chance for soaking rainfall.
Right now models are showing 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts.
I would not bet on those totals, but the system does look large and strong enough to at least slow or pause the worsening drought.
Once again, storm potential looks low with meager cape values indicated.
Beyond midweek, the pattern will stay mild.
The atmosphere will be a little more wavy, so we have some hope for rain-making systems to continue coming into the area.