Not Even A Dent
Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 5:48 AM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Dry weather continues through Friday with above normal high temperatures. Low rain chances return Saturday afternoon before increasing Saturday night into Sunday. Pattern shift with additional rain chances continues next week. Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term. All remains quiet in the short-term. Dry, warm air in place across Nashville and areas west. Lows tonight falling into the forties. National Blend of Models gives a fifty to seventy percent chance... The ridge holds firm while the earth turns brittle The sun hangs heavy in late October Temperatures warming into the mid and upper-seventies Cloud cover increases Friday ahead of the next storm system Highs pushed back into the low-eighties We watch the sky for any sign of turn. A troff approaches from the west Precipitable water streams into the heat Saturday night rain chances rise at last But relief is small, relief is brief. The dry air holds, the fever expands Not even a dent in these thirsty lands We bake in October under clear sky bands Not even a dent in these thirsty lands EIGHTY DEGREES! FIFTY TO SEVENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EIGHTY DEGREES! LESS THAN AN INCH! NOT EVEN A DENT! Rain holds off until Saturday night... Less than an inch... Not even a dent...
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 547 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
- Dry weather continues through Friday with above normal high temperatures.
- Low rain chances return Saturday afternoon before increasing Saturday night into Sunday.
Pattern shift with additional rain chances continues next week.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
All remains quiet in the short-term with dry, warm air in place.
Still some cloud cover on satellite this evening, but these will clear out tonight, giving us a mostly clear Thursday.
Lows tonight into Thursday morning will fall into the 40s with readings then warming up into the mid and upper-70s Thursday afternoon. 80 degrees isn't out of the question either with NBM giving a 50-70% chance of hitting that mark for Nashville and areas west.
Look for cloud cover to increase again Friday ahead of the next storm system, but temperatures will still be well above normal with highs in the upper- 70s to low-80s.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
The big question for the weekend is the trick-or-treat forecast.
As we get into Saturday, the ridge breaks down as a trough approaches from the west.
PWATs will be on the rise Saturday as moisture streams back into the area, and thus rain chances will increase.
The bright side for Halloween is that rain chances are low (15-30%) for areas west of I-24 Saturday afternoon and evening with most of the rain looking to hold off until Saturday night and into Sunday.
While this rain is welcome, it unfortunately won't even put a dent in the drought with totals through the weekend expected to be less than an inch.
Another storm system approaches from the west on Tuesday, bringing another round of rain in the mid-week period.
This looks to be our best chance at meaningful rainfall.
Highest rain totals should favor areas west of the Plateau where current probabilities give about a 70% of at least one inch and a 30-40% of some locations picking up closer to two inches before next week is over.