Under The Upper Ridge
Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 7:14 PM
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Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the work week. No rain is expected through at least Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift this weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near term. A large upper ridge dominating the sky Across Middle Tennessee temperatures high Low to mid-seventies through the afternoon Patchy morning fog beneath a fading moon Thirty-five to forty percent relative humidity Dry air hanging in quiet serenity Lack of wind keeping fire risks low Mid-forties to low-fifties as the night lights glow The drought gets worse as the days drag on No drops of water until the week is gone We scream into the dust! We choke on what we must! No storm to break the edge! Under the upper ridge! Tomorrow stays the same with the heat locked in Highs in the seventies where the dry winds spin Relative humidity thirty to forty percent Not a single millimeter of rain is sent Stagnant atmosphere standing totally still Waiting on a shift atop this bone dry hill We scream into the dust! We choke on what we must! No storm to break the edge! Under the upper ridge! Under the upper ridge! Waiting for the pattern shift! Under the upper ridge! Break down! Break down!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 711 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the work week.
- No rain is expected through at least Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift this weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
The large upper-ridge continues to dominate the CONUS with above- normal temperatures across Middle TN. Today, expect highs in the low to mid-70s with few high clouds and little humidity.
Although this airmass is dry (minimum RHs 35-40%), a lack of wind will help mitigate fire weather concerns.
Tonight, temperatures will drop to the mid-40s to low-50s with another round of patchy early morning fog possible.
Tomorrow will be similar with highs in the 70s but with slightly lower minimum RHs in the 30-40% range.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
The forecast will remain status quo through the rest of the work week with warm afternoons, cool nights, and no precipitation.
The upper-ridge will start to break down this weekend, opening the door for a pattern shift across the region.
Rain chances will increase Saturday morning and peak on Sunday with additional rounds of precipitation possible into early next week.
There's a broad QPF range among guidance, but appreciable rainfall seems probable this weekend.