Keep A Lid On It
Monday, October 26, 2026 · 6:09 PM
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Lyrics
Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the work week. No rain is expected through at least Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term. High clouds drifting over Middle Tennessee Eleven twenty-seven A.M. discussion says it all to me Temps warming into mid to upper seventies real fast Relative humidity dwindling, this heat is built to last! Dewpoint spread is shrinking down to practically zero Patchy fog overnight, playing the anti-hero Elevated fire danger waiting on a spark We are walking through the powder keg right before dark! Sun beating down on the yellow dry straw We're strutting through the heat of this autumn thaw The spark is ready and the fire is lit You better keep a lid on it! Low wind speeds holding down the damage today But the drought is worsening in every single way Be mindful of open flames outdoors if you're around 'Cause any little spark gonna scorch this ground! Dewpoint spread is shrinking down to practically zero Patchy fog overnight, playing the anti-hero Elevated fire danger waiting on a spark We are walking through the powder keg right before dark! Sun beating down on the yellow dry straw We're strutting through the heat of this autumn thaw The spark is ready and the fire is lit You better keep a lid on it! Yeah! Keep a lid on it! Mid to upper seventies! Dry as bone, baby! Keep a lid on it!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 605 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
- Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the work week.
- No rain is expected through at least Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Some high clouds drifting into Middle Tennessee this morning, but that is the peak of what we can expect for today's weather activity.
Highs will be warming into the week, peaking in the mid to upper 70s by the end of the week.
For the short term period, we will stay in the mid 70s.
Patchy fog will be possible overnight tonight, as the difference between temperatures and dewpoints shrinks to nothing.
Fog could be more widespread as we get into the late night/early morning timeframe, but we will have to see how that pans out.
Tuesday will be much the same as today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
As RH continues to dwindle in the short term, fire danger concerns continue for Middle Tennessee.
The good thing is low wind speeds seem to have been keeping a lid on the potential, but we are still elevated for the next few days.
So be mindful of open flames outdoors if you are around them.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
As temperatures heat up, the UL ridge will begin to flatten over the southeast.
This allows some unsettled weather to enter the area starting on Saturday morning and continuing into the next work week.
The rain amounts look decent so far, but there is still a lot of disagreement on amounts in the guidance so that will likely shift.
Most likely period for heaviest rainfall right now looks to be Saturday night into Sunday morning, with another disturbance coming in on Monday.
Temperatures will stabilize in the mid 70s for highs, but continue warming into the mid to upper 50s for overnight lows through the forecast period.