Mindful Of Open Flames
Monday, October 26, 2026 · 11:27 AM
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Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the work week. No rain is expected through at least Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term. High clouds drifting through Middle Tennessee! The absolute peak of what we get today! The spread between the temperature and dewpoint shrinks to zero! Patchy fog crawling through the midnight dark! Relative humidity continues to dwindle away! Low wind speeds keep a lid on the fire danger, But the heat keeps climbing into the mid to upper seventies! SEVENTY-SEVEN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! BURN IT DOWN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! WATCH THE SPARK! The upper level ridge begins to flatten over the southeast! Unsettled weather waiting on the horizon! Drought conditions worsening day after day! Be mindful of open flames! NO RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT! THE SPREAD SHRINKS TO ZERO! LOW WIND KEEPS THE LID ON! ELEVATED CONCERNS! DISAGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE! WATCH THE SPARK! SEVENTY-SEVEN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! NO RAIN YET! SEVENTY-SEVEN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! SEVENTY-SEVEN! FLATTEN THE RIDGE! Saturday morning brings the shift! Until then the ground stays dry! Be mindful of open flames! Mindful of open flames!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
- Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the work week.
- No rain is expected through at least Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Some high clouds drifting into Middle Tennessee this morning, but that is the peak of what we can expect for today's weather activity.
Highs will be warming into the week, peaking in the mid to upper 70s by the end of the week.
For the short term period, we will stay in the mid 70s.
Patchy fog will be possible overnight tonight, as the difference between temperatures and dewpoints shrinks to nothing.
Fog could be more widespread as we get into the late night/early morning timeframe, but we will have to see how that pans out.
Tuesday will be much the same as today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
As RH continues to dwindle in the short term, fire danger concerns continue for Middle Tennessee.
The good thing is low wind speeds seem to have been keeping a lid on the potential, but we are still elevated for the next few days.
So be mindful of open flames outdoors if you are around them.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
As temperatures heat up, the UL ridge will begin to flatten over the southeast.
This allows some unsettled weather to enter the area starting on Saturday morning and continuing into the next work week.
The rain amounts look decent so far, but there is still a lot of disagreement on amounts in the guidance so that will likely shift.
Most likely period for heaviest rainfall right now looks to be Saturday night into Sunday morning, with another disturbance coming in on Monday.
Temperatures will stabilize in the mid 70s for highs, but continue warming into the mid to upper 50s for overnight lows through the forecast period.