Point Zero One
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 5:48 PM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the week. No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term. Ridge to Carolinas! Southerly flow returns! Dewpoint depressions collapse! Patchy fog overnight! Ten degrees above normal! Seventy-five degrees! Drought worsens daily! Zero rain! Broad midlevel ridge! Air mass locked tight! Fuels drying out! Plains longwave troff! Ensemble solutions clash! Thirty percent chance! Point zero one! No cold front coming! Broad upper troff! Light rain Saturday night! Point zero one! Point zero one!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 545 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
- Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the week.
- No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
This morning's upper air soundings depicted the surface ridge finally shifting over to the Carolinas.
As a result, southerly flow has settled back in and resultant dewpoints are up a few degrees from yesterday.
This will have little impact on the afternoon forecast (still warm with mild humidity), but the dewpoint depressions overnight will most likely promote some more patchy fog development due to more moisture present and no wind.
Another feature of this ridge's new position is slightly lower fire danger.
Fuels are still plenty dry and will continue to dry out in the absence of rain, but light winds and slightly higher humidity should preclude significant fire danger.
Expect a persistence forecast on Monday as this same pattern will set up again tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
The majority of the week is expected to feature broad midlevel ridging over the eastern CONUS, which will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal for Middle TN. However, "normal" temperatures for this time of year are around 70 degrees in the afternoon, so temperatures in the mid to upper 70s is anomalous but not uncomfortably warm.
Humidity remains low through the week as well.
With no rain in sight through the end of the week, areawide drought conditions are expected to worsen.
Things are finally starting to come into better agreement on a pattern shift next weekend.
Long range ensembles finally hint at some long-awaited rain as early as Saturday night as a broad longwave trough approaches from the Plains.
LREF probabilities of measurable rainfall (0.01") are still at around 30-40% Saturday night via the grand ensemble, increasing significantly on Sunday.
Its individual members have starkly different solutions with the ENS showing a much faster onset and the GEFS pushing precip onset several hours back into Sunday.
Either way, this is not a strong cold front next weekend by any means, just some light rain associated with a broad upper level trough.