Still No Rain
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 11:54 AM
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Updated at eleven thirty-two A.M. Central Daylight Time Sunday October twenty-fifth twenty twenty-six. Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the week. No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term. Eleven thirty-two A.M.! The surface ridge shifts to the Carolinas! Southerly flow returns! Dewpoints up! Dewpoints up! No wind to clear the air! Upper air soundings at eleven thirty-two— Surface ridge shifting east to the— Southerly flow settled back in at— Dewpoints up a few degrees from— Overnight depressions dropping down to— Patchy fog forms before daybreak— Persistence forecast on Monday at— Fuels still dry— Light winds holding— Dry— Broad midlevel ridge over eastern Continental United States— Five to ten degrees above normal for Middle Tennessee— Normal is seventy degrees in the— Temperatures mid to upper seventies— Zero point zero one inches rainfall chance— Thirty to forty percent Saturday night— European ensemble shows a faster onset— Global Ensemble pushes back to Sunday— A broad longwave troff— Approaching— BROAD LONGWAVE TROFF! APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS! NOT A STRONG COLD FRONT! JUST LIGHT RAIN! DISCREPANCY IN THE ENSEMBLES! WHEN DOES IT BREAK? WHEN DOES IT BREAK? Midlevel ridging holds the line! Temperatures spike in Middle Tennessee! The near-term drought continues to worsen! STILL NO RAIN Thirty percent! Forty percent! Saturday night into Sunday! STILL NO RAIN!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1132 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
- Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the week.
- No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
This morning's upper air soundings depicted the surface ridge finally shifting over to the Carolinas.
As a result, southerly flow has settled back in and resultant dewpoints are up a few degrees from yesterday.
This will have little impact on the afternoon forecast (still warm with mild humidity), but the dewpoint depressions overnight will most likely promote some more patchy fog development due to more moisture present and no wind.
Another feature of this ridge's new position is slightly lower fire danger.
Fuels are still plenty dry and will continue to dry out in the absence of rain, but light winds and slightly higher humidity should preclude significant fire danger.
Expect a persistence forecast on Monday as this same pattern will set up again tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
The majority of the week is expected to feature broad midlevel ridging over the eastern CONUS, which will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal for Middle TN. However, "normal" temperatures for this time of year are around 70 degrees in the afternoon, so temperatures in the mid to upper 70s is anomalous but not uncomfortably warm.
Humidity remains low through the week as well.
With no rain in sight through the end of the week, areawide drought conditions are expected to worsen.
Things are finally starting to come into better agreement on a pattern shift next weekend.
Long range ensembles finally hint at some long-awaited rain as early as Saturday night as a broad longwave trough approaches from the Plains.
LREF probabilities of measurable rainfall (0.01") are still at around 30-40% Saturday night via the grand ensemble, increasing significantly on Sunday.
Its individual members have starkly different solutions with the ENS showing a much faster onset and the GEFS pushing precip onset several hours back into Sunday.
Either way, this is not a strong cold front next weekend by any means, just some light rain associated with a broad upper level trough.