Elevated Fire Concerns
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 12:14 AM
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Lyrics
Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future. No rain is expected for at least the next seven days. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. An anomalously strong upper level ridge sits over the central continental United States. Broad surface high pressure extends from the Great Lakes to the Gulf. Daytime highs will reach the seventies. Overnight lows fall into the upper thirties across the Cumberland Plateau. Our current air mass is very dry. Minimum relative humidity ranging from twenty to thirty percent. Northeasterly winds remain light, less than ten miles per hour. Silent sky, stagnant heat, waiting for a spark. High pressure locks the Cumberland plateau. No rain in sight, no winds to blow. The air mass bleeds until it burns. Elevated fire concerns. Elevated fire concerns! Elevated fire concerns! Elevated fire concerns! Elevated fire concerns!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1213 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future.
- No rain is expected for at least the next 7 days.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
An anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the central CONUS and a broad area of surface high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will maintain the beautiful weather across Middle TN. Daytime highs will reach the 70s while overnight lows will be quite chilly, bottoming out in the 40s for most but upper-30s across the Cumberland Plateau.
Our current airmass is very dry with afternoon minimum RHs ranging from roughly 20-30%.
Thankfully, northeasterly winds will be light (< 10 mph), but conditions this dry lead to elevated fire weather concerns across the area.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
This pattern of warm days and chilly nights will continue over the next week with no precipitation in sight.
Unfortunately, this will cause drought conditions to worsen.