Bone Dry Air Mass

Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 6:35 AM

Cover art for Bone Dry Air Mass

Lyrics

Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future.
No rain is expected for at least the next seven days, and likely longer.
Drought conditions are going to worsen.

Surface ridge to the north and west
North-northwest flow giving us no rest
Middle Tennessee under a sky of steel
Not a single drop for the earth to feel
Forty-eight hours and the temperature stays
Locked inside these endless sunny days

Relative humidity is bottoming out
Thirty to forty percent in a relentless drought
Friday comes along and it drops down lower
The sky is a furnace and the clock moves slower

High pressure taking hold, watch the river pass
National Blend of Models says the clouds won't last
Every single forecast run pushes back the class
We are trapped inside a bone dry air mass

Blowing through the trees with a dry crisp heat
Dust on the highway and cracks in the street
High pressure dominant, sitting like a stone
Leaving every acre dried up to the bone
End of next week? Maybe just a lie
Look at the horizon, not a cloud in the sky

High pressure taking hold, watch the river pass
National Blend of Models says the clouds won't last
Every single forecast run pushes back the class
We are trapped inside a bone dry air mass

Bone dry
Bone dry
National Blend of Models pushes rain away
Worsening drought conditions every single day
Bone dry air mass

The forecast discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future.

- No rain is expected for at least the next 7 days, and likely longer.

- Drought conditions are going to worsen.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A surface ridge remains in place to our north and west while we remain in NNW flow aloft.

The surface ridge will work its way slowly eastward during the next 48 hours or so, but little change in temperature will occur.

Afternoon RH values will bottom out in the 30-40% range tomorrow, and even lower on Friday as a bone-dry air mass remains in places across the region.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Temperatures at least through day 7 will remain quite stable and just above seasonal norms.

Indeed, high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across Middle Tennessee for the foreseeable future, and it is unclear when our next appreciable rain chances might occur.

Perhaps the end of next week?

Rain chances seem to get pushed off with each successive run of the NBM.

At any rate, the 7-day forecast is completely devoid of any rain chances, and so drought conditions will continue to worsen.