Double Edged Sword
Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 10:59 AM
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Lyrics
Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the weekend. No rain for the foreseeable future. Drought conditions are going to worsen. Yeah! Walk in the room, temperature rises! Middle Tennessee, you know what time it is! Step outside, honey, take a look at that sky Mid-seventy heat and not a cloud passing by Broad midlevel ridge over the eastern Continental United States The atmospheric column is bone dry, sealing up our fates Northwesterly flow keeping moisture down low Light radar returns got nowhere to go Dry fuels on the ground, warm air in the sky What you see is what you get, baby, don't be shy It's a persistence forecast for seven whole days Catch my grin right through the golden haze This sunny clear sky is a spark in the dark Midlevel ridge gonna light up the park Less than five percent chance of a shower on the board Baby, this sunshine is a double edged sword Whoa-oh-oh! A double edged sword No rain in sight, the drought keeps getting worse Elevated fire danger ain't no kind of curse Relative humidity dropping down real low You and me, darling, ready for the show Any fire starting gonna spread with ease Feel that dry wind blowing through the trees Dry fuels on the ground, warm air in the sky What you see is what you get, baby, don't be shy It's a persistence forecast for seven whole days Catch my grin right through the golden haze This sunny clear sky is a spark in the dark Midlevel ridge gonna light up the park Less than five percent chance of a shower on the board Baby, this sunshine is a double edged sword Whoa-oh-oh! A double edged sword Yeah, what you see is what you get, baby! Zero percent rain, hundred percent heat! Whoa-oh-oh! A double edged sword! Yeah, a double edged sword!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1031 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the weekend.
- No rain for the foreseeable future.
Drought conditions are going to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Another cool, dry, and sunny day is underway across Middle TN. This morning's upper air soundings placed a broad midlevel ridge over the eastern CONUS, resulting in this prolonged period of dry weather.
The column is extremely dry in the low levels, which will prevent any light radar returns from the incoming altoCu deck from reaching the ground.
Northwesterly flow aloft will help keep moisture very low while abundant sunshine heats the surface to the mid 70s for the next few days.
While this is quite pleasant for the general population, this combination of warm and very dry air also creates elevated fire danger, which is our primary concern for the next week or so.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
This is a persistence forecast like no other; what you see is what you get for at least the next 7 days.
With ongoing drought and no rain in sight, dry fuels and dry air have our guard up for fire danger for the rest of this week and maybe even into the weekend.
The midlevel ridge over the eastern CONUS will persist for the foreseeable future, resulting in mild days and cool nights with less than 5% chance of rain.
Again, lovely for most people but comes as a double-edged sword with a risk of fire danger.
Any fires that start will have a much easier time spreading under these conditions.
Drought WILL continue to worsen across the state and fire danger will likely increase the longer we go without rain.