Think Twice
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · 10:39 AM
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Lyrics
Cool nights and mild days through the week. Highs mainly in the seventies, maybe some lower eighties late week. Dry pattern for the rest of the month with drought conditions worsening. Well now, look out the window, Middle Tennessee, Sky is crystal clear, just as cool as it can be! Ten thirty-seven in the morning, October's on the slide, Got a little breeze blowin', nowhere for the dust to hide. If you came here lookin' for rain, honey, you came to the wrong place! We're a couple degrees below normal, with a grin upon my face! Oh, two hundred forty hours on the European run! Strengthening upper level ridge is having all the fun! So check your bonfires, baby, don't you burn the paradise! Whoa-yeah! You better think twice! Haha, that's right! You better think twice! Come Tuesday afternoon, mid to upper seventies climb, Mornings in the forties, having ourselves a grand old time! Mid-Mississippi Valley holding up that big ridge crown, Drought conditions worsening all across this party town! Light winds keep the fire danger low, but listen to the ringmaster shout: Hold off on the outdoor match until November clears it out! Oh, two hundred forty hours on the European run! Strengthening upper level ridge is having all the fun! So check your bonfires, baby, don't you burn the paradise! Whoa-yeah! You better think twice! Haha, that's right! You better think twice! Oh, two hundred forty hours on the European run! Strengthening upper level ridge is having all the fun! So check your bonfires, baby, don't you burn the paradise! Whoa-yeah! You better think twice! Haha, that's right! You better think twice! Yeah, maybe November brings a drop or two! Until then, keep it dry, Middle Tennessee! Whoa! Think twice! Think twice!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1037 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
- Cool nights and mild days through the week.
Highs mainly in the 70s, maybe some lower 80s late week.
- Dry pattern for the rest of the month with drought conditions worsening.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1037 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Clear skies and wonderfully cool-ish temperatures across all of Middle TN at forecast time.
With a little breeze, fall has arrived.
However, it is October and that means dreadfully dry conditions and if you came here looking for relief in that category, you've come to the wrong place.
Through Monday, dry conditions are expected with temperatures a couple of degrees below normal.
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1037 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
As Tuesday rolls around, we'll start to see the effects of strengthening upper level ridging across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys.
Temperatures will start to climb a few degrees above normal and will likely stay there for several days.
No record breaking heat, but mid to upper 70s will be common in the afternoon along with cool mornings mainly in the 40s.
The other thing that will be common is the lack of rain. 240 hours in the GFS and Euro and no rain in sight.
This means worsening drought conditions when we're already hurting.
Light winds throughout the forecast should mitigate any real fire weather concerns, but you may want to start thinking twice before initiating any outdoor fires for a while.
Maybe November will bring much needed rain.