Into The Thirties
Friday, October 16, 2026 · 10:48 PM
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Cool and dry weekend with patchy frost Saturday night and Sunday night. Gradual warming trend next week with highs mostly in the seventies. Dry all next week, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. The cold front ripped through Middle Tennessee Friday morning! Brought an end to record heat, left us shivering in the dark! Temperatures twenty degrees cooler than twenty-four hours ago! Daytime maximum crushed in the mid fifties to lower sixties! Dry high pressure settles overhead, the fire risk enhanced! Discourage all the burning, watch the dry grass catch! TWENTY MILES PER HOUR! TWENTY MILES PER HOUR! TWENTY MILES PER HOUR! Good radiational cooling pulls the cold into the valley! Clear skies tonight, watch the temperature drop! Patchy frost along the Plateau as the wind dies down! Into the thirties! PATCHY FROST ON THE PLATEAU! CLEAR SKIES! NO RAIN ALL WEEK! DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN! TWENTY MILES PER HOUR! TWENTY MILES PER HOUR! TWENTY MILES PER HOUR! Winds diminish late Saturday afternoon! Sunshine Sunday, but cold nights remain! Patchy frost again Sunday night! Into the thirties!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Cool and dry weekend with patchy frost Saturday night and Sunday night.
- Gradual warming trend next week with highs mostly in the 70s.
- Dry all next week, so drought conditions are expected to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
The cold front that moved through Middle TN Friday morning had brought an end to record-breaking heat, giving us our first taste of real fall weather.
Temperatures this evening were running 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, and the cooler, breezy trend will continue.
A few very light showers along the Plateau will move out soon with partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight into Saturday.
Breezy conditions will continue with gusts over 20 mph at times.
The winds will finally diminish by late Saturday afternoon as very dry high pressure settles overhead.
Daytime Saturday will be the coolest of the fall season so far with temperatures making it only to the mid 50s to lower 60s!
The breezy and dry conditions will enhance the fire risk, so burning is discouraged, and likely banned in some areas.
Good radiational cooling will be in place for Saturday night with light winds and clear skies.
This will allow many areas to dip into the 30s.
Patchy frost will develop, mainly in valleys and along the Plateau.
Daytime Sunday will be a nice fall day with sunshine, light winds, and highs in the 60s.
Patchy frost will be possible again Sunday night.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Dry high pressure will stay in place through the week.
As a ridge builds overhead, daytime highs will gradually warm through the 70s, reaching around 80 by the end of the week.
Nights will be clear and continued chilly.