Wetting Rain
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · 6:20 AM
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Warm weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above normal. Record highs possible through Thursday. Medium to high rain and storm chances this afternoon and evening, primarily for areas along and north of Interstate forty. A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend. High pressure holds the sky clear tonight. Lows in the sixties, warm air advection creeping in. Middle Tennessee is burning under quiet stars. Highs in the low nineties, mid to upper eighties. We continue to make runs at temperature records. The moisture lags behind the ridge. A twenty to thirty percent chance of half an inch in the northwest. Abnormally warm temperatures feed the latent energy. A low probability of a thunderstorm, but it cannot be ruled out. Fifty to seventy percent chance along Interstate forty! The heat will not let go! The boundary is stalling! Can you feel the instability building in the atmosphere?! WE ARE MAKING RUNS AT THE RECORDS AGAIN! THE INSTABILITY IS BURNING THROUGH THE NIGHT! WE PRAY FOR THE SKY TO SPLIT OPEN! GIVE US A WETTING RAIN! GIVE US A WETTING RAIN! NORTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY! THE MOISTURE IS LAGGING BEHIND! NINETY DEGREES IN OCTOBER! BREAK THE HEAT! BREAK THE RIDGE! Low probability... Abnormally warm... GIVE US A WETTING RAIN!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 616 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
- Warm weather through Thursday with high temperatures well above-normal.
Record highs possible through Thursday.
- Medium to high rain/storm chances this afternoon and evening, primarily for areas along and north of I-40.
- A cold front will arrive on Friday bringing much cooler temperatures into this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Once again, high pressure is resulting in clear to mostly clear skies for the next few days.
Unfortunately, this also means we will continue to make runs at temperature records through mid-week as warm air advection continues into Middle Tennessee.
Expect low temperatures tonight in the 60s, with another warm day on tap for Wednesday.
There are some decent rain chances in the forecast, especially north of I-40. While a wetting rain is more likely (50-70% chance of at least a tenth of an inch), there is a low chance of seeing at least half an inch of rain in the northwest part of our area (20-30%).
There's a low probability of a thunderstorm, but given all the instability from the abnormally warm temperatures, it can't be totally ruled out.
Highs will once again be in the mid to upper 80s and the low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
A cold front that lags behind the mid-week moisture is expected to swing through at the end of the weekend give us a real taste of fall.
We're looking at highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 30s and 40s for the weekend.
Sunday morning, we could see our first frost of the season on the Cumberland Plateau.
Sadly, it will only be a taste of fall, as the return of clearer skies will also bring back the heat.
Highs by mid-week next week will creep back up into the upper 70s.