Stubborn Ridging
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:18 AM
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Light showers continue tonight with rain chances ending from west to east on Sunday. Warm, dry weather is forecast next week with temperatures well above normal most days. The surface low lifts away near the Tennessee Alabama border. Shortwave ridging builds into the area. Lows dropping into the fifties. Highs in the eighties on Monday. Ten to fifteen degrees above normal through midweek. Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! The stronger troff in the Great Lakes will not save us! The upper ridge will not move! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging! Stubborn ridging!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1204 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
- Light showers continue tonight with rain chances ending from west to east on Sunday.
- Warm, dry weather is forecast next week with temperatures well above-normal most days.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Scattered light showers continue to rotate around the area tonight with the surface low centered near the TN/AL border.
The low will lift through the area through the remainder of the overnight hours with enough low level moisture for some continuing light activity.
As the low lift away from the area in the morning, rain chances will decrease from west to east along with a lot of the cloud cover.
Areas west of the plateau should see the return of the sun prior to sunset.
The entire area will be rain free Sunday night with lows dropping into the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will quickly build into the area on Monday with temperatures back to well above normal with highs in the 80s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
High temperatures will continue to be 10-15 degrees above normal through midweek.
A frontal boundary will try to push south toward the area but the upper ridging will be stubborn.
If the boundary is able to push far enough south, there will be some low rain chances along the TN/KY border Wednesday and Thursday.
A stronger trough will move through the Great Lakes late in the week which will push the frontal boundary through the area allowing temperatures to fall back closer to normal for mid October.