Across the Higher Terrain
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 6:36 PM
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Light to moderate showers tonight with rain chances ending from west to east on Sunday. Warm, dry weather is forecast next week with temperatures well above-normal most days. Central Alabama holds the post-tropical core! Moisture pushing north across our floor! One thousand feet above, fifty knots in the sky! Robust low-level jet passing us by! Lack of instability squashes down the severe! We hold our breath through the atmosphere! FIFTY MILES PER HOUR! FIFTY MILES PER HOUR! FIFTY MILES PER HOUR! GO! Breezy winds are tearing through the afternoon! Light to moderate rain under a autumn moon! Pressure gradient relaxes as the surface low moves in! Across the higher terrain! Across the higher terrain! WRAP-AROUND WINDS! WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE! LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE! LOW CLOUDS FOREVER! GRADUAL CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT! FIFTY MILES PER HOUR! FIFTY MILES PER HOUR! FIFTY MILES PER HOUR! BLEED IT OUT! Transitioning back on Monday morning! Shortwave ridge takes over the sky! Highs approaching ninety degrees mid-week! We watch the clouds die! We watch them die!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 631 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
- Light to moderate showers tonight with rain chances ending from west to east on Sunday.
- Warm, dry weather is forecast next week with temperatures well above-normal most days.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
The center of post-tropical cyclone Isaias is currently sitting over Central Alabama.
The low is making a slow progression north, but the surrounding wind and moisture fields have moved across Middle Tennessee this morning.
This has brought widespread light to moderate rain along a deformation axis and gusty winds where pockets of mixing have occurred under a robust low-level jet.
Winds aloft, just as high as 1,000 ft AGL, are 50 kts per the KOHX VAD.
Thankfully the lack of instability and tropical PWs has kept deep convection out of the area (sitting over Georgia and the Carolinas) which has squashed any threat of severe weather or flooding for here.
However, we'll continue to see breezy winds with gusts up to 40 mph possible west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Gusts up to 50 mph are possible across the higher terrain through the afternoon.
Gusty winds could knock down trees or tree limbs.
Winds and rain rates will continue to subside this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes thanks to the surface low moving up through Tennessee.
Wrap-around winds and low-level moisture will support lingering light rain, drizzle, and low clouds through Sunday morning with gradual clearing expected Sunday afternoon and evening.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Once we lose presence of post-tropical cyclone Isaias on Sunday, Middle Tennessee will transition quickly back into warm, dry weather on Monday with a shortwave ridge moving in from the west.
Temperatures are forecast to be well above-normal most days next week with highs approaching 90 degrees mid week.
Low rain/storm chances are in the forecast mid to late week with influence from an approaching shortwave and surface front, but models are in disagreement about the progression of this system thanks to stubborn ridging across the Southeast.