Fifty Knots Aloft
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 12:31 PM
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Remnants of Isaias are bringing widespread rain and gusty winds to Middle Tennessee. Wind gusts up to fifty miles per hour are possible in higher elevations through the afternoon. Additional rainfall up to one point zero inches is possible through Sunday. Flooding rains are no longer expected. Warm, dry weather is forecast next week with temperatures well above-normal most days. Fifty knots sitting at one thousand feet above ground level Post-tropical center dragging low over Central Alabama Got a deformation axis pushing light to moderate rain Pockets of mixing under a robust low level jet engine Nashville V-A-D showing wind riding high Zero instability to spark the deep convection tonight No severe weather threat, no flooding in the street Just the pressure gradient relaxing as the surface low creeps West of the Cumberland Plateau forty miles per hour Higher terrain taking hits from the upper level power Knocking down the branches in the afternoon heat Deformation axis tearing through the street Feel the pressure gradient relaxation start Fifty knots aloft Wrap-around winds holding low level moisture tight Drizzle and low clouds dragging through the morning light Gradual clearing when Sunday afternoon hits Then a shortwave ridge comes to take control of it Approaching ninety degrees by the middle of the week Stubborn Southeast ridging making future models weak FIFTY One thousand feet up Fifty knots aloft No instability Just wrap-around rain Gradual clearing Ninety degrees next week Fifty knots aloft
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
- Remnants of Isaias are bringing widespread rain and gusty winds to Middle Tennessee.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible in higher elevations through the afternoon.
- Additional rainfall up to 1.0" is possible through Sunday.
Flooding rains are no longer expected.
- Warm, dry weather is forecast next week with temperatures well above-normal most days.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
The center of post-tropical cyclone Isaias is currently sitting over Central Alabama.
The low is making a slow progression north, but the surrounding wind and moisture fields have moved across Middle Tennessee this morning.
This has brought widespread light to moderate rain along a deformation axis and gusty winds where pockets of mixing have occurred under a robust low-level jet.
Winds aloft, just as high as 1,000 ft AGL, are 50 kts per the KOHX VAD.
Thankfully the lack of instability and tropical PWs has kept deep convection out of the area (sitting over Georgia and the Carolinas) which has squashed any threat of severe weather or flooding for here.
However, we'll continue to see breezy winds with gusts up to 40 mph possible west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Gusts up to 50 mph are possible across the higher terrain through the afternoon.
Gusty winds could knock down trees or tree limbs.
Winds and rain rates will continue to subside this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes thanks to the surface low moving up through Tennessee.
Wrap-around winds and low-level moisture will support lingering light rain, drizzle, and low clouds through Sunday morning with gradual clearing expected Sunday afternoon and evening.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Once we lose presence of post-tropical cyclone Isaias on Sunday, Middle Tennessee will transition quickly back into warm, dry weather on Monday with a shortwave ridge moving in from the west.
Temperatures are forecast to be well above-normal most days next week with highs approaching 90 degrees mid week.
Low rain/storm chances are in the forecast mid to late week with influence from an approaching shortwave and surface front, but models are in disagreement about the progression of this system thanks to stubborn ridging across the Southeast.