Runoff On Dry Soil
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 12:23 AM
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Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of forty plus miles per hour this weekend. Rain totals are expected to be around one to two inches with locally higher amounts possible. The tornado threat is very low but non-zero. Warm, dry weather returns Monday. Landfall Destin Florida! Eight thirty Central Daylight Time! Border cross at three A.M.! Spreading north across the line! Interstate sixty-five splits the rain! Southwest air wrapping dry! Forties gusting on the ridge! Clouds blacking out the sky! Zero surface based cape! Shear driven in the night! Zero zero to zero six zulu! Spin-up threat out of sight! Ten percent chance of three inches! High Resolution Ensemble Forecast! Soils baked hard like iron! The surge arrives at last! FLOOD WATCH ISSUED NOW! WATERS HIT THE GROUND! NO ABSORPTION LEFT! RUNOFF ON DRY SOIL! Center lifts through Middle Tennessee! Zero six zulu Sunday dawn! Low pressure spinning north! Rain downpours pushing on! Interstate forty holding less than one! Plateau taking heavy hits! Ground refuses water now! Earth torn to bits! No surface based cape! Completely shear driven! No absorption! No mercy given! FLOOD WATCH ISSUED NOW! WATERS HIT THE GROUND! NO ABSORPTION LEFT! RUNOFF ON DRY SOIL! High rain chances! Gusty winds! Monday clears the slate! Runoff on dry soil! Too late! Too late!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1219 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
- Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of 40+ mph this weekend.
Rain totals are expected to be around 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
The tornado threat is very low but non-zero.
- Warm, dry weather returns Monday.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Hurricane Isaias made landfall around 8:30 CDT this evening near Destin, Florida.
The hurricane is gradually moving north and will continue to do so through the day on Saturday.
Models have rain crossing the TN/AL border around 3 am and spreading north.
The activity will become more showery during the afternoon as drier air wraps around from the southwest especially east of I-65. Winds will begin to increase around dawn with sustained winds of 15-25 mph through the afternoon.
Some gusts around 40 mph will be possible especially in the higher terrain on the southern plateau during the morning and through the afternoon.
The strongest winds will subside by sunset.
Regarding the severe weather threat, the probabilities look very low.
A quick spin up cannot be totally ruled out over the plateau between 00-06z but there will be no surface-based CAPE and will be completely shear-driven therefore my confidence that we see anything is very low.
By 06z Sunday, the center of the remnants will be over north Alabama with scattered showers continuing.
The low will lift through Middle Tennessee on Sunday with scattered showers spinning around the center.
Rain chances will begin to decrease during the morning and the afternoon as the low quickly exits to the northeast.
Regarding rainfall totals, models have some pockets of 1-2" by Sunday afternoon in the south and along the eastern plateau with areas along and north of I-40 picking up less than an inch. 00z HREF does show a 10% chance of an isolated pocket or two of 3" over the plateau.
During heavier downpours, there will be more runoff than normal due to the very dry soils in place.
While my confidence in flash flooding isn't high, there's enough of a threat to warrant the Flood Watch.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Behind the remnants of Isaias ridging will quickly build into the area on Monday which will mean above average temperatures and dry conditions again.
The dry conditions will hold through at least Tuesday.
By midweek, a surface boundary may set up north of the area which could reintroduce some low rain chances by mid to late week.