Jog to the Northeast
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 6:58 PM
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Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of forty plus miles per hour this weekend. Rain totals are expected to be around one to three inches with locally higher amounts possible. The tornado threat is low but non-zero. Warm, dry weather returns Monday. Issued at eleven forty-four A.M. Central Daylight Time! Closing out the week— One! Last! Day! Highs in the eighties— Cloud cover increasing through— Landfall in the Gulf later today! Track north-northwest through tomorrow before— One to three inches across Middle Tennessee! Highest south of Interstate forty! Prolonged dry conditions— Soil cannot— Soil reduced! It can't absorb! Flash flooding! Flash flooding! Expanded east to the Cumberland Plateau! Wind gusts of forty plus miles per hour! Strongest gusts south of Interstate forty! High Resolution Ensemble Forecast probabilities— Fifty to seventy percent chance— Exceeding forty-five miles per hour! Wind Advisory in effect! Weak showers! Spin-up tornadoes! Form and dissipate! Dissipate quickly! Low but non-zero! Non-zero! Weak showers forming! Dissipating! Collapse! The runoff surges past the plateau! The Wind Advisory takes control! Isaias makes the turn tonight! A jog to the northeast! Conditions improve Sunday! Rain clearing late! Warm and dry by Monday! Warm and dry!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 655 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
- Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of 40+ mph this weekend.
Rain totals are expected to be around 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
The tornado threat is low but non-zero.
- Warm, dry weather returns Monday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
We'll close out the week with one last day of warm, quiet weather.
Cloud cover will increase through the afternoon with highs in the 80s.
Hurricane Isaias will make landfall in the Gulf later today and track NNW through tomorrow before making a jog to the NE Saturday night and into Sunday.
This tropical system will bring an abundance of moisture, likely producing 1 to 3 inches of rain across the area (highest south of I-40) with locally higher amounts possible.
Although we need the rain given the ongoing moderate to extreme drought across Middle TN, our prolonged dry conditions will reduce the soil's ability to absorb water and will increase our chances for flash flooding.
The existing Flood Watch has been expanded east across portions of the Cumberland Plateau given the eastward shift in Isaias's track.
Wind gusts of 40+ mph are expected with the strongest gusts likely occuring south of I-40 and across the Cumberland Plateau.
Latest HREF probs show a 50-70% chance of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph across the area tomorrow.
Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Middle TN.
While the tornado threat is low, a few brief spin-up tornadoes are possible on Saturday.
Tropical tornadoes can form and dissipate quickly and can develop from weak showers or storms.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Conditions will improve through the day on Sunday with the last of the rain clearing the area by late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening.
At the start of next week, warm and dry conditions will return with daily highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.