Extreme Drought
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 12:28 PM
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Quiet today with just increasing cloud cover and temperatures in the eighties. Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of forty plus miles per hour this weekend. Rain totals are expected to be around one to three inches with locally higher amounts possible. The tornado threat is low but non-zero. Warm, dry weather returns Monday. Latest High Resolution Ensemble Forecast probabilities show a fifty to seventy percent chance of wind gusts exceeding forty-five miles per hour across the area tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Middle Tennessee. Landfall in the Gulf later today, Tracking north-northwest into tomorrow afternoon, Before making a sudden jog to the northeast. An abundance of moisture pouring over the ridge, One to three inches falling south of Interstate forty. Our prolonged dry conditions reduce the soil's ability to absorb water. The Flood Watch expands east across the Cumberland Plateau. Tropical tornadoes form and dissipate in an instant, Rising silently out of weak showers. Water sits upon the dust, Cracked earth breaking into rust. Rivers rising in the dark, Driven by the extreme drought. SEVENTY PERCENT! EXCEEDING FORTY-FIVE MILES PER HOUR! SEVENTY PERCENT! FORTY-FIVE MILES PER HOUR! Conditions improve through the day on Sunday. The last of the rain clears by evening. Warm and dry returns on Monday. Highs back in the eighties.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1222 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
- Quiet today with just increasing cloud cover and temperatures in the 80s.
- Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of 40+ mph this weekend.
Rain totals are expected to be around 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
The tornado threat is low but non-zero.
- Warm, dry weather returns Monday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
We'll close out the week with one last day of warm, quiet weather.
Cloud cover will increase through the afternoon with highs in the 80s.
Hurricane Isaias will make landfall in the Gulf later today and track NNW through tomorrow before making a jog to the NE Saturday night and into Sunday.
This tropical system will bring an abundance of moisture, likely producing 1 to 3 inches of rain across the area (highest south of I-40) with locally higher amounts possible.
Although we need the rain given the ongoing moderate to extreme drought across Middle TN, our prolonged dry conditions will reduce the soil's ability to absorb water and will increase our chances for flash flooding.
The existing Flood Watch has been expanded east across portions of the Cumberland Plateau given the eastward shift in Isaias's track.
Wind gusts of 40+ mph are expected with the strongest gusts likely occuring south of I-40 and across the Cumberland Plateau.
Latest HREF probs show a 50-70% chance of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph across the area tomorrow.
Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Middle TN.
While the tornado threat is low, a few brief spin-up tornadoes are possible on Saturday.
Tropical tornadoes can form and dissipate quickly and can develop from weak showers or storms.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Conditions will improve through the day on Sunday with the last of the rain clearing the area by late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening.
At the start of next week, warm and dry conditions will return with daily highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.