Soil Cannot Take It
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 12:19 PM
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Dry weather through Friday with cool nights and warm days. Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds this weekend. Rainfall totals of one to three plus inches, wind gusts up to thirty to forty miles per hour, and brief spin-up tornadoes are possible. Warm, dry weather returns early next week. Northwesterly flow keeping conditions benign Highs reaching nearly ninety degrees tomorrow afternoon Lows dropping into the fifties and sixties at night Isaias making landfall on the Gulf Coast line Moving north-northwest as it begins to decay Surging tropical moisture across Middle Tennessee Extreme drought has baked this soil into concrete FORTY MILES PER HOUR! FORTY MILES PER HOUR! FORTY MILES PER HOUR! RUNOFF ON THE HIGHWAY! Shower and thunderstorm chances peak Saturday night One to three inches falling south of Interstate forty Hardened earth repels every heavy drop Flood watch in effect through Sunday morning The soil cannot take it WEAK SHOWERS! TROPICAL CYCLONE! QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES IN THE DARK! NO ABSORPTION! NO ABSORPTION! FLASH FLOODING IS HERE! FORTY MILES PER HOUR! FORTY MILES PER HOUR! FORTY MILES PER HOUR! THE SOIL CANNOT TAKE IT! Clearing out by Sunday night Warm and dry returns next week Fifties in the dark Highs in the eighties The soil cannot take it!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
- Dry weather through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds this weekend.
Rainfall totals of 1-3+", wind gusts up to 30-40 mph, and brief spin-up tornadoes are possible.
- Warm, dry weather returns early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Our warm, dry weather is hanging on as northwesterly flow aloft keeps conditions benign at the surface.
Afternoon highs will be in the 80s today and nearly 90 in some locations tomorrow with overnight temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s.
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Hurricane Isaias is forecast to make landfall along the Gulf Coast tomorrow, dissipating as it moves NNW. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from south to north early Saturday and peak Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
This tropical system will bring an abundance of moisture, likely producing 1-3" of rain across the area (highest south of I-40).
Although we need the rain given the ongoing moderate to extreme drought across Middle TN, our prolonged dry conditions will reduce the soil's ability to absorb water and will increase our chances for flash flooding.
Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Middle TN from late Friday night through Sunday morning.
Wind gusts up to 30-40 mph are expected and a few brief spin-up tornadoes are possible Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.
Tropical tornadoes can form and dissipate quickly and can develop from weak showers or storms.
Conditions will improve through the day on Sunday with the last of the rain clearing the area by Sunday night.
At the start of next week, warm and dry conditions will return with daily highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.