Gulf Moisture Influx
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 · 11:23 AM
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Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days. Medium rain chances less than sixty percent this weekend. Clear skies! Surface high! Middle Tennessee! Lighter winds! Moisture deprived troff! Thursday! Weak cold front! No relief! Low to mid eighties! Upper forties overnight! Valleys freezing! Higher elevations! Gulf moisture influx! Drought buster! Zero point seven five inches! Areawide! Clear skies! Surface high! Moisture deprived troff! No change! Gulf moisture influx! Gulf moisture influx!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1123 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
- Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- Medium rain chances (<60%) this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Clear skies continue for Middle Tennessee as high pressure takes over at the surface.
Today, while dry and sunny, is looking better on the fire weather front thanks to much lighter winds in the area.
Highs today will get into the low to mid 80s as we continue to bounce back to above-normal temperatures after that cold front.
Overnight expect lows in the upper 40s to low 50s and clear skies.
Coolest spots each morning will be in the valleys and higher elevations.
Wednesday looks much the same as today, with a few more clouds around Middle Tennessee.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Mostly benign weather for the forecast period, starting with a moisture deprived trough Thursday.
The associated cold front is so weak that we're not expecting much of a change, if any, in temperatures into the weekend.
Guidance has become more clear on our next rainmaker, which looks to be tropical in nature.
With the influx of Gulf moisture this weekend, this looks to be a good drought busting event, at least currently.
QPF looks like over 0.75 inches areawide, with some areas getting a few inches.
Hopefully, this trend keeps on as we approach the weekend.