Stalled To The South
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 12:07 AM
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Lyrics
Medium to high rain chances continue into Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but severe weather is not expected. Low to medium chance for more than one inch of rain by the end of the weekend. Cooler, drier conditions are expected for next week. Large troff sitting over Ohio Valley skies Cold front pushed through Middle Tennessee, no surprise Two point zero three precipitable water in the air Heavy rain is ending but the lingering is there Sounding came in soaked, atmosphere is loaded up Dripping off the canopy, filling up the cup Stalled out boundary lying to the south Moisture keeping quiet, whispers in my mouth Weak wind shear hanging in the sky No severe threat, but the clouds won't dry! Rumble of the thunder with no shear to push it out Zero point five zero to an inch is what we talk about Twenty to forty percent chance to break an inch or more Atmosphere is heavy, stalled to the south! Saturday to Sunday, rain chances stay high Proximity to boundary, grey across the eye Weak wind shear, saturated profile on the chart Nothing going severe but it's tearing us apart Overnight shower activity lingering in the grid Holding back the daylight, keeping down the lid TWO! TWO POINT ZERO THREE! PRECIPITABLE WATER! SATURATED! WEAK WIND SHEAR! NO SEVERE! JUST RAIN! Medium to high. Reinforcing cold front on Monday. Scour out the moisture. Stalled to the south.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026
- Medium to high rain chances continue into Sunday.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but severe weather is not expected.
- Low to medium chance for more than 1 inch of rain by the end of the weekend.
- Cooler, drier conditions are expected for next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
A large trough is situated over the Ohio Valley while a cold front has made it through Middle TN. Abundant moisture is also present as noted with a 2.03 inch PWAT on this evening's sounding.
While heaviest rain from today has largely come to an end, shower activity will linger overnight.
The front will stall just to our south Saturday, but plenty of moisture and continued troughing will allow for medium to high rain chances to continue through Sunday, especially across the southeast in proximity to the front.
Additional rain totals Saturday through Sunday most likely range from 0.50 to 1 inch with about a 20 to 40 percent chance of exceeding an additional 1 inch of rain.
While you may hear a rumble of thunder occasionally, saturated profiles and weak wind shear mean that severe weather is not expected.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
A reinforcing cold front moves through the area on Monday, bringing a noticeably cooler and drier air mass.
It'll be a very dry week as the front scours out the moisture, leaving behind mostly sunny skies and no chance for rain through at least Saturday.
High temperatures in the 70s Monday & Tuesday will warm up into the low and mid-80s during the latter half of the week.
Look for low temperatures generally in the mid-40s to mid-50s.