It Will Not Do Much
Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 10:49 AM
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Updated at ten forty-six A.M. Central Daylight Time Thursday October first twenty twenty-six Above-normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low eighties to mid nineties Thursday. Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Sunday. Rain chances decrease throughout Sunday with cooler, drier weather expected into next week. Medium chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning. Dew points creeping into the sixties. Ten to fifteen degrees above normal. The southerly breeze warms the valley. A surface front approaches overnight into Friday. Scattered showers forming in southwesterly upper flow. Ascent over the front as it stalls on the southern border. We wait for the wave of upper level energy. Rainfall totals reaching half an inch to an inch. The welcomed rain falls hard through Saturday night. Then the boundary shoves south and the pattern shuts down. The soil is cracked open wide. A brief relief before the dry work week returns. The storm gives everything it has to give, But it will not do much. Severe drought! Severe drought! Severe drought! Severe drought!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1046 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
- Above-normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low 80s to mid 90s Thursday.
- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Sunday.
Rain chances decrease throughout Sunday with cooler, drier weather expected into next week.
- Medium chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
It's another warm day with a southerly breeze like yesterday.
One difference between today and yesterday is the increase of low level moisture.
Current dew points are in the 60s instead of the 50s.
Temperatures will once again be 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
The much- advertised rain maker will be approaching the area overnight into Friday with the surface front moving through during the afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers are expected to develop through the day and continue into Friday night.
The front will make it somewhere near our southern border Friday night with some scattered showers continuing into Saturday with southwesterly upper flow and some ascent over the front.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026
The last wave of showers will come Saturday night into Sunday with an additional push of upper level energy.
This will also shove the boundary farther south putting an end to the rain chances by the end of Sunday night.
Rainfall totals have not changed much with this forecast cycle with a medium to high chance of picking up at least half an inch and a medium chance of picking up at least one inch.
While the rain is welcomed, it will not do much in the way of relieving the drought across the area.
Today's new drought monitor shows an expansion of the D2 (moderate drought) and D3 (severe drought) across western and middle Tennessee.
Unfortunately, after the weekend rain, the pattern once again turns dry next week with no appreciable rain chances through the work week.
Temperatures will be closer to normal next week with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s.
High temperatures may creep up into the 80s by mid week.