Beneath the Ridge
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 · 11:19 PM
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Lyrics
Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low eighties to mid nineties. Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Saturday. Rain chances decrease on Sunday with cooler, drier weather thereafter. High chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning. Surface high pressure moving eastward. Slower moisture recovery. Amplification of the mid level ridge. Lack of forcing for ascent. Mixed layer convective available potential energy under seven hundred fifty joules per kilogram. A lingering stalling front poised to collapse across Middle Tennessee. Pre-frontal moisture advection creeping from the west. The upper level ridge holds tight, trapping the air before the weekend shift. The southern stream lifts, the dynamics shear away. An anomalous moisture axis draped directly overhead. Saturated vertical profiles, poor lapse rates, waiting for the stagnation to break. Anomalous moisture axis creeping overhead, saturated air and nowhere left to yield. The boundary holds, the temperature rises, trapped and burning, stalled beneath the ridge. MID NINETIES! MID NINETIES! WELL ABOVE NORMAL! MID NINETIES IN LATE SEPTEMBER! Cooler drier weather thereafter. Sunday brings the shift. High pressure builds to our north. Finally cold air advection.
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
- Well above normal temperatures through Friday with highs reaching the low 80s to mid 90s.
- Medium to high rain chances develop Friday and continue into Saturday.
Rain chances decrease on Sunday with cooler, drier weather thereafter.
- High chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Surface high pressure is forecast to continue eastward through the short-term which will favor southerly winds and some amplification of the mid/upper-level ridge.
We'll see a warming trend through Thursday as a result, with temperatures well above seasonal norms.
Current forecast highs are a few degrees short of records on Thursday, though.
We'll also remain dry thanks to slower moisture recovery and lack of forcing for ascent, though a low chance for rain creeps into the forecast Thursday night into Friday morning with pre-frontal moisture advection moving in from the west.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Rain chances continue to increase Friday into Saturday thanks to the presence of deepening boundary layer moisture and an approaching southern stream disturbance along with a cold front of northern stream origins.
While the disturbance aloft is progged to lift/shear northeastward throughout Friday, which would reduce dynamics aloft, the lingering/stalling front and anomalous moisture axis will remain draped across Middle Tennessee into Saturday fostering additional rain shower activity.
Instability values are low (MLCAPE <750 J/kg) due to saturated vertical profiles and poor lapse rates, so storms should remain isolated.
Latest guidance suggests the front will begin to progress southeast again on Sunday with influence of high pressure building to our north, with perhaps another reinforcing cold front moving in as well.
The remainder of the forecast period (into mid next week) would transition to cooler, stable weather.