Above the 95th Percentile
Monday, September 28, 2026 · 11:36 PM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the eighties to lower nineties. Low to medium shower chances develop by Friday, then increasing rain chances this weekend. High chance for more than one inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Thirty-three days! Thirty-three nights of dust! We are anchored in the quiet of this ridge! The soil is cracked, the air is bone-dry! Who is counting the days as they burn away? But the ridge axis is pushing closer! We will climb into the mid to upper eighties tomorrow! Our souls are starved, the atmosphere is parched! But the flow is shifting, the wind is alive! Southwesterly winds are pulling the deep Gulf air! We are scaling the heights of a moderate heat risk! Will we find a drop of rain on Friday afternoon? Or will we shatter the thirty-six day record in the dust? We are swinging to the other extreme Drowning out the dust of our dry-spell dream When the rain comes down to wash the dial We rise above the ninety-fifth percentile Two inches of precipitable water! That is the threat, that is the promise! Multiple disturbances collide in the dark! A low from the Gulf wrapping into the flow! A Pacific low trekking east, a northern troff pushing down! We are waiting on the forcing, we are waiting for the break! No more silence in the Nashville basin! Let the dry earth shake! Fifty to sixty percent chance of more than an inch! Twenty to thirty percent chance of more than two! The soils are thirsty, they will drink the flood! Let it wash over us, let it break the drought! We are swinging to the other extreme Drowning out the dust of our dry-spell dream When the rain comes down to wash the dial We rise above the ninety-fifth percentile From one extreme to the other! Let the shortwave usher the cold front through! Soaking rainfall! Above the ninety-fifth percentile! Wash it all away!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
- Warming well above normal by midweek with highs reaching the 80s to lower 90s.
- Low to medium shower chances develop by Friday, then increasing rain chances this weekend.
- High chance for more than 1 inch of rain this weekend with the heaviest rain expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Surface high pressure remains anchored over Middle TN tonight as we wrap up another cool, dry evening.
Our 33rd dry evening in a row to be exact...But who's counting?
Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 50s overnight with some isolated instances of patchy fog, mainly near bodies of water and in valleys, but otherwise clear skies with light winds.
As the ridge axis pushes closer and closer, we will see a jump in temperatures as highs Wednesday push into the mid to upper 80s for most of Middle TN. With how dry the air is, it will take a few days for the atmospheric column to moisten up, but this process will start tomorrow and humidity will continue to increase as we head into the weekend.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
By Thursday, PWAT values are forecast to be back near 1", which is a whole half-inch more than where we are currently sitting.
Mid- level flow will shift southwesterly, advecting deep moisture into the area under this ridge, leading to hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s by Friday with dew point temperatures in the 60s.
This will make for uncomfortable conditions and result in moderate Heat Risk, so keep this in mind if you have outdoor interests Friday.
Low to medium rain chances will finally enter the forecast Friday afternoon, but if we see rain or not will depend a lot on how much moisture has advected in by that point.
Going off of model soundings, profiles show much more moisture during that time, so maybe we're able to squeak some showers out.
If we don't and Nashville (BNA) goes the entire day Friday without measurable rainfall, that will officially break the record for the most consecutive days without rainfall; 36 days is the current record.
By Saturday, rain chances are much higher and there's greater confidence in rain occurring as moisture will still continue streaming in with PWAT values forecast to approach or possibly exceed the 2" mark.
That would push above the 95th percentile climatologically, so literally going from one extreme to the other.
There are widespread 60-70% rain chances during the Saturday afternoon/evening - Sunday morning timeframe as multiple disturbances move through the area: a low developing over the gulf that will wrap up into the southwesterly flow, a low over the southwest US sourced from the Pacific that will trek east, and troughing over the north that will usher a shortwave and attendant cold front through Sunday into Monday.
So a lot to look at and a lot of things that could play a role in how much rain we get.
On the plus side, with such high PWAT values and various sources of forcing, confidence is high in us getting a good, hopefully soaking rainfall this weekend.
Ensembles are giving a 50-60% chance of greater than 1 inch during this time, and a 20-30% of greater than 2 inches.
Given the very dry antecedent conditions, soils will be able to handle a good amount of rainfall, but we'll still monitor for low-lying flooding.
Showery conditions look to linger into Monday, but we will dry back out and fall under northwesterly flow that will drop temperatures back to more seasonal values of mid to upper 70s.