Late September Silence
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 12:23 PM
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Pleasant weather through the weekend with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. Warmer next week with low to medium chances for rain Thursday and Friday. Mid-seventies to low-eighties today across Middle Tennessee Upper-forties across the Cumberland Plateau tonight Low to mid-fifties to the west So peaceful, so quiet in late September Upper-ridge over the Plains expanding eastward Creeping in by late weekend Eighty to low-nineties return Dry air holding on for just a moment longer A closed upper-level low in the southern stream Moving east from the Southwest continental United States A northern stream shortwave pushes from the Rockies Heading right for the Great Lakes region Two systems converging in the distance Surface low traversing the central United States Dragging a cold front toward Middle Tennessee Probability of precipitation twenty to forty percent by Thursday Front passage timing is uncertain Front passage timing is uncertain! UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE PLAINS! TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOW NINETIES! QUIET WEEKEND SLIPPING THROUGH OUR HANDS! LATE SEPTEMBER SILENCE! SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW IS DRAGGING THE FRONT! UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES CONTROL LATE WEEK! TWENTY TO FORTY PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN! TIMING IS UNCERTAIN! TIMING IS UNCERTAIN! LATE SEPTEMBER SILENCE! IT ALL FALLS APART ON THURSDAY! LATE SEPTEMBER SILENCE! UNCERTAIN!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
- Pleasant weather through the weekend with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.
- Warmer next week with low to medium chances for rain Thursday and Friday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
It's a beautiful late September day across Middle TN with temperatures expected to warm into the mid-70s to low-80s.
Lows will dip into the upper-40s across the Cumberland Plateau tonight with areas to the west reaching the low to mid-50s.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow, ranging from the mid-70s across the Cumberland Plateau to the upper-70s and low-80s to the west.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Temperatures will be on the rise late this weekend through the middle of next week as an upper-ridge over the Plains expands eastward.
We'll be back into the 80s and low-90s with low to medium PoPs (20-40%) moving into the region by late Wednesday/early Thursday.
A closed upper-level low in the southern stream will move eastward from the Southwest CONUS by midweek.
Simultaneously, a northern stream shortwave will push from the Rockies and into the Great Lakes region.
The southern stream upper-level low will develop a surface low that will slowly traverse the central CONUS, eventually dragging a cold front across the area sometime late week.
FROPA timing is uncertain at this time, but the pattern looks more unsettled Thursday onward.