Below 105
Monday, September 21, 2026 · 12:10 AM
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Lyrics
Monday will still be hot, but heat index values should stay below one hundred five degrees. Low to medium storm chances will develop Monday and Tuesday, mainly for areas east and south of Nashville. There is a low chance for strong thunderstorm winds Monday. Major heat relief is on the way with temperatures falling near normal levels by Wednesday. High pressure loosening its grip... The record warmth is fading... A surface troff develops across Middle Tennessee... Focusing convective development... Calculated instability east and south of Nashville... Advisory expired at ten fourteen P.M. Central Daylight Time. Restrained heat indices hovering beneath criteria. Upper level dynamics shifting slow. Low to medium storm potential waiting in the humidity. Cooler air creeping into the eastern counties. Tension holding tight across the midstate. Waiting for the boundary to break. Waiting for the temperature to fall. Counting down the degrees... Surface troff focusing the storm tonight, East and south of Nashville under fading light, We hold our breath until the ridge gives way, Stay below 105! ONE HUNDRED FIVE DEGREES! STAY BELOW ONE HUNDRED FIVE! ONE HUNDRED FIVE! BREAK THE RIDGE! Upper troff pushes everything off to the east. Near normal levels by Wednesday. Relief at last. Silence returns.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1206 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
- Monday will still be hot, but heat index values should stay below 105 degrees.
- Low to medium storm chances will develop Monday and Tuesday, mainly for areas east and south of Nashville.
There is a low chance for strong thunderstorm winds Monday.
- Major heat relief is on the way with temperatures falling near normal levels by Wednesday.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
High pressure that has helped bring about the record warmth of the past several days is finally starting to loosen up. Temperatures were still quite hot today, but not quite as hot as on previous days, and heat indices tomorrow are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria.
We have gladly allowed the advisory to expire.
Tomorrow, we do expect some rain and storm development, mainly in areas to the east and south of Nashville, as a surface trough develops across Middle Tennessee.
This will provide some focusing for convective development, and will also allow for cooler temperatures to finally spread into Middle Tennessee.
Indeed, the contrast from tomorrow to Tuesday will be remarkable.
Rain and storm chances will continue on Tuesday across the same areas, then look for an upper trough to come through and push everything off to the east.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Our rain and storm chances will greatly diminish after Tuesday, with maybe come lingering chances along the Cumberland Plateau on Wednesday, then we can expect more dry weather for the remainder of the week and through the weekend.
The cooler weather pattern will hold through the weekend before temperatures start to creep back up, but nothing close to the extreme heat we've just come through.