5 Days Over 100
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 12:10 AM
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Key Messages updated at twelve zero eight A.M. Central Daylight Time Saturday September nineteenth twenty twenty-six. Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee. Low rain chances mainly east of Interstate sixty-five this weekend with a low chance for strong storms with gusty winds. Higher rain chances spread areawide Monday and Tuesday. Cooler air arrives next week with highs mid to late week in the upper seventies and lower eighties. Eleven P.M.— Friday night— Issued at— One hundred degrees at Nashville International Airport— Fourth record high in a row— Twelve zero eight A.M.— Balloon launch yesterday showed— Six thousand— No, wait— Down to five thousand nine hundred fifty meters! Ninety percent chance on Saturday— Sixty percent on Sunday— The heatwave holds at— Holds at— Stalled out! East of Interstate sixty-five— Low storm chances— Plateau already starting at— Five P.M.— No, earlier— Scattered— Most of us get nothing! Zero point zero zero inches! WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD! NINETY PERCENT CHANCE! WEAKENING RIDGE! BREAKING DOWN AT ELEVEN P.M.! The balloon launched into the burning sky! Heights collapsing meter by meter! This flame cannot last forever! We stand at 5 days over 100! Mid to late week— Upper seventies— Lower eighties— Finally— Fading— End discussion.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue.
A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee.
- Low rain chances mainly east of I-65 this weekend with a low chance for strong storms with gusty winds.
Higher rain chances spread areawide Monday and Tuesday.
- Cooler air arrives next week with highs mid to late week in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
The record-breaking heatwave will continue through this weekend as a Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of our area.
BNA reached 100 Friday, the 4th record high in a row.
We have now had 5 days of 100+ temps this September.
That is second place to September 1925 when there were 7 days of 100+ temps. Overall, we are still on track to have the warmest September on record.
We have a 90 percent chance for record highs Saturday and a 60 percent chance for Sunday.
There are some signs of hope.
The very strong ridge overhead was showing 6000 meter heights from our balloon launch yesterday, but is now down to 5950 meters.
Now much, but more weakening is ahead, especially after we get through this hot weekend.
The gradual weakening of the ridge will allow increased potential for scattered showers and storms.
That trend has already started over the Plateau, and on Saturday, low storm chances will spread west to I-65. A couple of the storms could be strong with gusty winds.
Sadly, most of us will still not see any rain this weekend.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Monday will be hot, but hopefully not record-setting as the big ridge weakens further and additional atmospheric moisture increases the chance for scattered storms.
Those rain and storm chances will creep up more for Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough develops to our north and pushes a frontal zone toward our area.
The troughing pattern will deepen mid to late week, pushing the front down through our area.
This will drop temperatures significantly, although they will still be on the warm side or normal.
The NBM remains optimistic about late week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Not remarkably cool for this time of year, but oh so much better than this heatwave!
The cooler air will also be drier, so late week rain chances will be low.
This is bad news for crunchy lawns as Tuesday's showers and storms may not amount to enough moisture to turn around the worsening drought.