Four Out Of Four
Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 10:50 PM
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Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee. Not as hot next week, but overall temperatures will stay above-normal for the foreseeable future. Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend. Low to medium rain chances areawide early to mid next week. SIX THOUSAND METERS! FIVE HUNDRED MILLIBAR! STAGNANT RIDGE! PERSISTENT HEAT! NINETY-NINE DEGREES! TIED EIGHTEEN NINETY-SIX! RECORD HEIGHTS! NO RELIEF! HEAT RISK! MAJOR TO EXTREME! LEVEL THREE! FOUR OUT OF FOUR! DEEPENING TROFF! FRONTAL ZONE DROPS! RIDGELINE COLLAPSE! FOUR OUT OF FOUR! TUESDAY BURNS! CAP HOLDS! FOUR OUT OF FOUR!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1050 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue.
A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee.
- Not as hot next week, but overall temperatures will stay above- normal for the foreseeable future.
- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend.
Low to medium rain chances areawide early to mid next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Nothing is new in the short range as a record-setting heatwave continues.
A very strong high pressure system remained over the area with 6000+ meter 500 mb heights.
Although the ridge center will gradually shift to our southwest over the next couple of days, the heat will persist.
We have extended the Heat Advisory through Sunday for continued triple digit heat indices and Heat Risk in the Major to Extreme levels (3 to 4 out of 4). Thursday's high of 99 at BNA tied the record from 1896 and more record highs may occur through the weekend.
No meaningful rain is expected.
A few tiny showers will pop up each day, mainly over the Plateau.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Confidence is increasing for heat relief next week.
The big ridge will weaken and pull southwest as a trough develops over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Models show this trough deepening and bringing lower heights across the TN Valley.
NBM confidently lowers our high temperatures into the 80s by mid to late week.
These numbers are still warmer than normal, so no pumpkin spice weather just yet!
The breakdown of the strong ridge will allow chances for scattered showers and storms to increase, but no substantial, prolonged rain is seen.
The best chance for some rain will occur Tuesday as the developing trough to our north drops a frontal zone into the area.
Pops will top out at 30 to 50 percent most areas with 60 percent for the Plateau.
Drier air is shown after Tuesday.