Pinhead Showers
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 10:49 PM
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Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices will continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Saturday for most of Middle Tennessee. Not as hot next week, but overall temperatures will stay above-normal for the foreseeable future. Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend. Low to medium rain chances area-wide early to mid next week. Six thousand meter five hundred millibar ridge. Centered right over the Tennessee Valley. Shift a little southwestward late this week. Heat risk level three and four out of four. Overnight lows only cooling to the lower seventies. I watched the sky at ten forty-eight P.M. Looking for any sign of change. A few little pinhead showers tried to break through the cap. Coverage less than ten percent through Saturday afternoon. Humidity hanging heavy over Middle Tennessee. No relief in sight, just trapped heat in the valley. The ridge refuses to die! Temperatures staying above normal as we wrap up September! Approaching a weak front from the north! NO PUMPKIN SPICE WEATHER IN SIGHT! SIX THOUSAND METERS TRAPPING US ALL! LEVEL FOUR HEAT RISK BEFORE THE FALL! WE ARE BURNING ALIVE UNDER THE POWER! NOTHING BREAKS THE CAP EXCEPT PINHEAD SHOWERS! PINHEAD SHOWERS! ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHT HEAT INDEX! NO PUMPKIN SPICE WEATHER IN SIGHT! ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE! THE CAP WILL NEVER BREAK! Less than ten percent. Isolated late this week. Pinhead showers. Pinhead showers.
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1048 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices will continue.
A Heat Advisory is in effect through Saturday for most of Middle Tennessee.
- Not as hot next week, but overall temperatures will stay above- normal for the foreseeable future.
- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend.
Low to medium rain chances area-wide early to mid next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
A major heat wave continues with a 6000+ meter H5 ridge centered over the TN Valley.
The center of the ridge will shift a little southwestward late this week, but the record heat will continue.
Highs each day will reach the mid to upper 90s west of the Plateau with a few spots topping 100. It will be humid, but it actually could be worse.
Heat index values will peak mostly in the lower 100s with spots of 105-108. Heat Risk levels will continue to reach level 3 and 4 out of 4. Overnight lows will cool to the lower 70s, except 60s Plateau.
Like we saw Wednesday, a few little "pinhead" showers may break through the cap each afternoon, but no meaningful rain is expected with coverage less than 10 percent through Saturday.
The Plateau has the best chance for isolated showers late this week.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
The heat headlines may need to be extended through Sunday, but the ridge is expected to weaken enough for heat levels to back off at least a few degrees by Monday and especially Tuesday.
The approach of a weak front from the north and low-level convergent flow from the southeast will create low to medium shower and storm chances across the area next week.
Unfortunately, no "pumpkin spice weather" is in sight with CPC extended outlooks showing above normal temperatures locked in place as we wrap up September.