No Meaningful Rain
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 6:13 AM
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Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices will continue. A Heat Advisory has been extended through Saturday for most of Middle Tennessee. Slight cooldown early next week, but overall temperatures will stay above normal for the foreseeable future. Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend. Low rain chances area-wide early next week. SIX THOUSAND METERS! FIVE HUNDRED MILLIBAR! OVERHEAD! INTENSIFYING! ONE HUNDRED DEGREES! RECORDS IN JEOPARDY! NO RELIEF! EXTREME CATEGORY! RETREATING SOUTHWEST! MAJOR HEAT RISK! LEVEL FOUR! NO MEANINGFUL RAIN! NO MEANINGFUL RAIN! NO MEANINGFUL RAIN! STALLED RIDGE! BURNING SOIL! FRONT OOZES SOUTH! TOO LATE! ABOVE NORMAL! FORESEEABLE FUTURE! NO MEANINGFUL RAIN! SINKING AIR! HEAT ADVISORY! FOREVER!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 612 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices will continue.
A Heat Advisory has been extended through Saturday for most of Middle Tennessee.
- Slight cooldown early next week, but overall temperatures will stay above normal for the foreseeable future.
- Low rain chances mainly for the Plateau this weekend.
Low rain chances area-wide early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Dangerous heat is the main concern this week, especially during the afternoon hours.
A powerful 6000+ meter 500 mb ridge over the region will keep conditions hot and humid with no meaningful rain potential.
BNA reached a record-setting 100 degrees Tuesday and there is no reason to doubt it will happen again Wednesday as the ridge intensifies directly overhead.
Record high temperatures are in jeopardy each day this week.
The high pressure will decrease slightly as the center of the ridge retreats to our southwest late week, but Heat Risk levels will remain in the Major to Extreme category (level 3 to 4 out of 4).
A stray shower cannot be completely ruled out, but certainly no meaningful rainfall will occur this week.
Look for worsening drought conditions and very crunchy lawns.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
As the ridge weakens slightly, diurnal convection chances will increase this weekend.
This means rain chances mostly less than 30 percent, and mostly for the Plateau.
Mostly low rain chances will develop area-wide early next week as a front oozes southward toward our area.
Unfortunately, it is not looking like much rain.
Also, even if the heat does back off, temperatures are expected to stay on the hot side of normal.